Brazil’s soybean crop for 2024/25 is forecasted at 174 million metric tons by Celeres, up from 170.8 million due to favorable weather. While many consultancies expect record outputs, delays in harvesting may affect subsequent corn planting. StoneX has reduced its estimate slightly, anticipating challenges with weather in key states, contrasting Celeres’ growth forecast.
Celeres, an agribusiness consultancy, has raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop for 2024/25 to a record 174 million metric tons. This revision marks an increase from the previous estimate of 170.8 million, attributed to favorable weather conditions. This projected yield represents a significant boost of 15 million tons compared to the previous season’s output, driven primarily by improved yields in the center-western, northern, and northeastern farming regions.
The overall expectation among agribusiness consultancies indicates a trend towards record soybean production in Brazil, with several firms anticipating outputs exceeding 170 million tons. Celeres mentioned that further adjustments to the crop estimates are likely as the harvesting process continues. Their analysts stated, “Data on the soybean harvest, which remains delayed, will be incorporated into upcoming production estimates, with adjustments to the crop figure expected in the coming months.”
In contrast, consultancy firm StoneX has slightly reduced its soybean production estimate for Brazil, by 0.3%, now forecasting 170.9 million tons for the same season. This minor decrease stems from concerns regarding dry weather conditions affecting key agricultural states, including Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Recent data from AgRural indicated that as of last Thursday, only 9% of the soybean area had been harvested, a 5 percentage point increase from the prior week but still below last year’s pace. This slow harvest could potentially limit the planting window for Brazil’s second corn crop, which heavily relies on timely soybean harvests to begin planting.
The second corn crop usually planted in the same regions after soybean harvest accounts for approximately 75% of Brazil’s national corn production annually. AgRural noted that last year, 16% of the total soybean area had already been harvested by this time. Fortunately, for the second corn crop, preliminary estimates show an increase in planting activity, now at 9%, up from 2.2% last week, although still far behind last season’s 27%. StoneX noted possible risks associated with planting second corn outside the ideal season.
Despite the challenges, StoneX has slightly boosted its forecast for the second corn crop to 101.7 million tons, driven by an increase in the area planted. This adjustment underscores the ongoing efforts by farmers to adapt to varying conditions while attempting to optimize overall crop yields as the season progresses.
The soybean industry is crucial for Brazil, both as a key agricultural export and for domestic food security. The country has established itself as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, driven by suitable climate conditions and advances in farming technology. The forecasts for Brazil’s soybean production reflect fluctuations due to weather patterns, which can dramatically affect planting and harvesting schedules. Understanding the implications of these forecasts is essential for market stakeholders, particularly in light of challenges posed by potential climate risks.
Celeres’ forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop reflects an optimistic outlook based on improved weather, projecting a yield of 174 million tons. While the harvest is currently delayed, adjustments in estimates are expected as data becomes available. Conversely, StoneX’s slight reduction highlights regional weather concerns, underscoring the complexities of soybean production in Brazil. The slow harvesting pace is anticipated to impact the second corn planting window but recent increases in planted acreage offer a degree of optimism.
Original Source: www.agriculture.com
