Ecuador faces a pivotal presidential election between Daniel Noboa and Luisa González, both advocating for militaristic crime policies amid contrasting economic visions. Noboa, in a recession, emphasizes tough crime measures and social welfare, while González proposes social spending and a shift from an oil-dependent economy. Both candidates aim to enhance state power for public safety, presenting significant implications for voters’ futures.
In the upcoming December election, Ecuador will see incumbent President Daniel Noboa face off against challenger Luisa González. This follows the February 2025 election where neither candidate achieved the required 50% of the votes, both securing roughly 44% each. Noboa, a conservative and Ecuador’s youngest president, assumed office in 2023, completing former President Guillermo Lasso’s term, who had dissolved the National Assembly to bypass an impeachment process linked to corruption allegations.
Noboa’s presidency has been marked by escalating crime rates, prompting him to declare a state of emergency shortly after taking office. This allowed military involvement in domestic policing efforts and classified several criminal gangs as terrorist organizations. Although there was a temporary reduction in the homicide rate, Ecuador experienced record violence in January 2025, with 731 homicides reported.
The economic landscape under Noboa has declined, largely due to an energy crisis from prolonged droughts affecting hydropower supply. Blackouts lasting up to 14 hours per day have severely impacted productivity, costing roughly $12 million hourly. As a result, GDP decreased by 1.5% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024, and poverty rose by 2%. If re-elected, Noboa intends to enhance crime policies, which include building a $52 million maximum-security prison and addressing energy issues vaguely while increasing social programs for impoverished families.
Luisa González, supported by former President Rafael Correa despite his legal troubles over corruption, seeks to tackle crime similarly to Noboa through increased military presence. She has also pledged to restore the Ministry of Justice, which was dissolved in 2018, to improve rehabilitation and human rights within the prison system.
Economically, González aims to transition Ecuador away from oil dependency. Despite oil constituting 82% of energy needs, she promotes social spending increases in high-violence areas and tax reductions for women-owned businesses, signaling a return to Correa-era policies. Though diverging in economic approaches, both candidates share a commitment to expanding state power under the guise of enhancing public safety, potentially leading to voter disillusionment with these methods.
Ecuador’s second presidential election in 2025 will highlight contrasting visions for the nation’s future. Incumbent Daniel Noboa aims to continue militaristic crime policies while addressing a pressing energy crisis. Meanwhile, Luisa González seeks to revitalize social programs and re-establish a government ministry focused on justice and rehabilitation. Both candidates advocate for increased state power, putting public safety at the forefront. Voter outcomes will significantly influence Ecuador’s socio-economic trajectory amidst these shared challenges.
Original Source: reason.com
