Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa is advocating for foreign military assistance to combat rising crime as the country prepares for elections. With crime rates surging, experts question the effectiveness of militarized strategies while emphasizing the importance of tackling root causes of violence. Political rival Luisa Gonzalez poses a significant challenge, reflecting the complex interplay of security, governance, and economic stability in Ecuador’s future.
As Ecuador approaches a pivotal presidential election set for April 13, incumbent Daniel Noboa is advocating for the integration of foreign military special forces into the nation’s ongoing battle against drug trafficking and organized crime. This potential shift in defense strategy coincides with Noboa’s earlier proposal to amend the constitution, facilitating foreign military base establishment in response to escalating crime rates.
Ecuador currently grapples with severe violence, having recorded 1,300 homicides within just the first 50 days of 2025, marking a staggering 40% increase from the same timeframe in 2023. Positioned between Colombia and Peru, Ecuador is now the leading exporter of cocaine to Europe, partly fueled by growing involvement from various international drug cartels exploiting its weak security infrastructure and geographical advantages.
In light of deteriorating security conditions, U.S. editors and analysts have suggested implementing a “Plan Colombia” for Ecuador, akin to a significant military aid initiative designed to combat drug-related crime in Colombia. This $15 billion plan successfully reduced crime rates in Colombia but has inadvertently redirected transnational criminal activities into Ecuador following a peace deal that demobilized local insurgent groups.
The Biden administration recently acted by deploying senior officials to Ecuador, including the SOUTHCOM commander, culminating in agreements focused on defense, intelligence sharing, and law enforcement enhancements to address the narcotics crisis. These efforts included signing a bilateral status of forces agreement, which allows U.S. military personnel certain legal immunities in Ecuador.
In 2024, the U.S. committed to a five-year, $93 million aid package, supplying critical resources such as bullet-proof vests, personnel deployment, and military equipment to bolster Ecuador’s defense against organized crime. Meanwhile, Noboa’s administration has engaged foreign entities like Matrix Aviation Inc. to secure additional U.S. military financing and resources needed for combating various crimes within the country.
Noboa’s political strategy includes courting support from the Trump administration while navigating internal political opposition. His rival, Luisa Gonzalez, who has previously aligned herself with former President Rafael Correa, is currently a strong contender in the elections. Correa’s prior tenure saw a reduction in crime and a boost in the economy, which contrasts with the instability experienced under Noboa’s watch.
Throughout Noboa’s leadership, crime rates have fluctuated, with 35 emergency states declared since Correa’s departure in 2017. As a consequence, Noboa’s approval rating has significantly declined. Experts agree that meaningful effort against crime must focus on improving societal conditions, rather than strictly relying on military intervention.
Analysts have expressed concerns regarding a militarized response to Ecuador’s multifaceted crime issue, including potential backlash against foreign troops operating within the country. This is particularly relevant given the discontent surrounding perceived infringements on Ecuador’s sovereignty.
Additionally, economic decisions taken by Noboa’s government, including arms agreements with the U.S., have complicated international relations, impacting vital trade with countries like Russia. This precarious economic situation could jeopardize Noboa’s chances of acquiring the much-needed robust U.S. security packages.
The U.S.-Ecuador Partnership Act, intended to enhance bilateral assistance following the economic downturn, has shown limited effectiveness. Facing multifarious challenges, including increasing migration to the U.S. and political strife with his vice president, Noboa’s path to election victory may heavily depend on freshly reinforced military strategies while struggling to demonstrate a tangible commitment to restoring peace and security in Ecuador at a critical juncture.
Ecuador’s upcoming elections highlight President Daniel Noboa’s drastic measures to curtail drug-related violence through potential foreign military support. As the country faces escalating crime rates and geopolitical challenges, Noboa’s reliance on historical military strategies has raised concerns regarding their efficacy and public acceptance. Political dynamics, economic realities, and potential opposition could determine the outcome of Noboa’s push for U.S. military involvement amidst an uncertain security landscape.
Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org
