Increased insecurity in Ethiopia’s Tigray region raises fears of renewed conflict. Political tensions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) escalate, risking the party’s legal status. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may exploit this disarray to weaken TPLF’s opposition. The potential for armed conflict grows, driven by militarization and factional rivalries, amid concerns of a gradual coup as local governance fractures. The region’s historical trauma complicates prospects for stability.
Recent political tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region have raised fears of renewed conflict. Locals have begun withdrawing cash and hoarding essential goods due to rising costs and shortages, with gasoline prices skyrocketing by 200%. Meresa Giday, a resident of Mekelle, stated, “There’s great fear here in Tigray,” highlighting the trauma from the previous war.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) faces internal divisions, with power struggles escalating between factions led by Gebremichael Debretsion and Reda Getachew. The TPLF’s legal status is at risk, pending a congress by February 9 to be recognized as a political party. If unsuccessful, this could lead to heightened tensions and potential violence.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may benefit from the disarray within the TPLF, as it prevents unification and opposition against his government. After the Tigray War, Abiy rejected Debretsion’s leadership in favor of Getachew, but internal conflicts have emerged following Getachew’s expulsion. Observers consider this strife advantageous to Abiy’s strategy of political weakening.
The risk of a fresh armed conflict is possible, given the increasing militarization of the TPLF factions and the tensions that could draw in external actors from neighboring regions. Internal instability within Ethiopia, compounded by external pressures and unresolved issues from the Tigray conflict, continues to exacerbate regional tensions.
Though the immediate risk of war may be low, a gradual coup is unfolding with rival factions claiming control over local administrations. This mirrors a fragmentation of governance where the central authority is increasingly challenged. The ongoing internal conflict within TPLF breeds fear and corruption, with many officials avoiding accountability for past grievances.
The Tigray region in Ethiopia has experienced significant unrest and turmoil following a devastating conflict that resulted in an estimated 600,000 casualties. The TPLF, once the dominant political entity in Ethiopia, has seen significant internal divisions leading to competing factions and a struggle for power. The government’s response to the conflict and the political landscape remain fraught with unresolved issues, setting the stage for potential instability. However, the vital political dynamics involving regional governments and the central authority, particularly how they manage relations with neighboring countries, are crucial in understanding the potential for further unrest in Tigray and beyond. Additionally, the fragmented governance is fueled by systemic corruption and operational challenges faced by various individuals and factions trying to reclaim power following the civil conflict which greatly affected the region’s sociopolitical fabric.
The Tigray region’s current situation indicates a precarious balance between potential conflict and political turmoil. Internal divisions within the TPLF threaten the region’s stability, with the legitimacy of the TPLF as a political party on the line. Furthermore, the overarching influence of the central government under Abiy Ahmed highlights the complexities of Ethiopian politics, exacerbating the risk of renewed violence. The potential for armed conflict remains a concern, given the historical trauma and ongoing internal struggles. The socio-political landscape is volatile, as local administrative control becomes disputed, pointing toward a gradual shift in governance away from the transitional government. Thus, the pressures from both within and outside the Tigray region suggest that the road to stability remains fraught with obstacles.
Original Source: www.dw.com
