Colombia’s peace prospects diminish as illegal armed groups fragment amid drug trafficking booms. President Petro’s Total Peace initiative falters with failed negotiations, particularly with ELN and FARC dissidents. AGCs largely remain outside the framework, with ongoing violence in urban areas complicating peace efforts. Fragmentation and external support from Venezuela destabilize the region further, affecting future negotiations.
The outlook for peace in Colombia is diminishing as illegal armed groups continue to splinter amid a surge in gold and cocaine trafficking. President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace initiative, aimed at negotiating with the country’s main armed factions and criminal organizations, is faltering halfway through his four-year term. The unrest has significantly altered the dynamics of organized crime in the nation.
Initial dialogue with the National Liberation Army (ELN) faced setbacks as negotiations collapsed in May when a faction splintered off for separate talks. This faction’s emergence has deteriorated the potential for peace, especially with the ELN’s leadership and resources concentrated in Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro’s regime following a controversial election.
Similarly, discussions with dissidents from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) have faced challenges, leading to a fragmented situation within these groups. Infighting has resulted in new factions breaking away from major dissident groups like the Central General Staff and the Second Marquetalia, leaving the government to negotiate with only a fraction of these organizations.
The Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AGC), the most dominant drug trafficking group, has largely evaded the Total Peace framework. Negotiations are stalled due to the lack of a legal framework that could facilitate talks, causing delays with urban peace initiatives in cities where gang violence is prevalent.
As Petro progresses into his third year, a review of peace talks reveals significant developments and their ramifications for organized crime moving into 2025. After initial dialogues with the ELN, tensions escalated when factions fractured, resulting in the Comuneros del Sur Front breaking away to establish localized negotiations due to the dissatisfaction with the national approach.
Consecutively, the ELN suffered setbacks as a ceasefire agreement expired in August 2023 without renewal, leading to violent attacks that prompted the government to suspend talks. Renewed discussions commenced in late November, indicating a potential review of the dialogue process while the ELN exploited political conditions in Venezuela to strengthen its position.
The fragmentation within FARC dissidents also complicated government efforts. The EMC’s internal divisions have hindered negotiations after Petro suspended a bilateral ceasefire due to violence against Indigenous peoples. Tension increased following the expulsion of factions from talks, alongside a series of violent incidents stemming from Mordisco’s faction.
The AGC’s engagement continues to pose difficulties, with governmental classification as a high-impact crime organization limiting its eligibility for more favorable negotiation terms. Recent governmental moves to initiate dialogue with the AGC indicate a potential shift, yet tensions remain high, underscored by recent military offensives against AGC targets.
The fragmentation of Colombia’s armed groups poses significant challenges for President Petro’s Total Peace initiative. Internal divisions within organizations like the ELN and dissident FARC factions complicate negotiations, leading to ongoing violence and instability. The absence of a legal framework hampers urban peace efforts, reinforcing the continuous cycle of criminal activity. The geopolitical dynamics with Maduro’s regime in Venezuela further complicate the situation, impacting potential peace outcomes into 2025.
Original Source: www.financecolombia.com
