Turkey and Iran’s historical rivalry escalates as regional power dynamics shift, primarily influenced by the Syrian conflict and Iranian weakness. Turkey aims to exploit this situation to enhance its influence in Syria and Iraq, while Iran seeks to counter Turkey’s advances amid concerns over its internal minority tensions. Both countries exhibit readiness for rivalry but also recognize the need for strategic management to prevent broader conflict.
Tensions between Turkey and Iran have escalated over Syria and Iraq, driven by shifts in regional power dynamics. Turkey, feeling emboldened by recent events, sees an opportunity to counter Iran’s influence, which has weakened after the fall of Assad’s regime. This rising rivalry could extend beyond their borders, influencing broader geopolitical landscapes in the Middle East.
The conflict intensified when Iranian officials criticized Turkey’s involvement in Syria following comments made by Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, on disarmament. In retaliation, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned Iran to avoid interfering in Turkey’s internal matters, emphasizing that such interventions could lead to negative repercussions for Tehran.
Historically, Turkey perceived Iran’s regional policies as destabilizing, prompting discussions about a united Sunni front with Saudi Arabia to counteract Tehran’s influence. However, Turkey’s commitment to this alliance waned due to energy dependence on Iran and regional dynamics. With changing circumstances, Turkey now recognizes a shift in the power balance in its favor.
Israel’s military actions against Iran have further diminished its regional strength. In addition, Turkey’s decreasing energy reliance on Iran allows Ankara to pursue greater independence and alignment with its foreign policy objectives. Syria presents a critical battleground for Turkey, which aims to establish stable relations there to bolster economic and military ties, as well as to manage PKK-related issues.
Iran, facing its vulnerabilities, has reacted strategically to dispel perceptions of weakness by asserting its willingness to confront Turkey. Notably, Ayatollah Khamenei’s foreign policy advisor publicly criticized Turkey while threatening retaliation against perceived Turkish interference in Iranian affairs, indicating Tehran’s readiness to counteract Ankara’s influence in its own territories.
In response to Turkish initiatives, Iranian media have hinted at stirring unrest among the Turkic minorities within Turkey, warning that any Turkish effort to undermine Iran would trigger reprisal measures. This escalatory rhetoric seeks to remind Ankara of its internal vulnerabilities, particularly among ethnic and religious minorities.
Despite mutual concerns, Iran’s role in Syria remains significant, as it can disrupt Turkey’s plans by supporting opposition factions or the Syrian Kurds, whom Turkey considers a terrorist threat due to their PKK affiliations. These dynamics complicate Turkish-Iranian relations and influence broader US-Turkey interactions, particularly regarding military presence in Syria.
In Iraq, Turkey aims to deepen its commercial ties amid Iranian political influence. However, escalating Turkish-Iranian tensions could hinder these ambitions, as both nations maneuver for power and influence in a geopolitically sensitive area.
Despite the ongoing rivalry, Iranian officials see potential for de-escalation with Turkey, viewing Ankara’s assertiveness as a negotiation tactic to dissuade Iranian support for Kurdish factions in Syria. Ultimately, while Turkey enjoys a stronger position, Iran retains capacity to respond defensively and assertively in various theaters, including Iraq and Syria.
As competition for regional influence continues, signs of proxy conflicts in broader territories, including the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Horn of Africa, may proliferate. The risk lies in escalating this rivalry into larger confrontations, reminiscent of the geopolitical turbulence after the Arab Spring, which many regional powers wish to avoid.
The increasing tensions between Turkey and Iran highlight a shifting balance of power in the Middle East, with Turkey seeking to capitalize on a weakened Iranian presence. Effective management of this rivalry is crucial, as both nations possess the ability to influence geopolitical events significantly. The potential for conflict not only threatens Turkey-Iran relations but could incite broader instability across the region. Consequently, careful diplomacy and strategic balancing are essential to prevent escalation into a renewed cycle of proxy warfare and instability.
Original Source: www.mei.edu
