On March 1, Venezuela’s naval intrusion into Guyana’s EEZ heightened tensions in a long-standing territorial dispute, compounded by internal political agendas and international responses. The situation necessitates a unified approach to deter further aggressive actions and maintain regional stability amid preparations for upcoming elections in both countries.
On March 1, a Venezuelan naval vessel entered Guyana’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), approaching the Liza Destiny oil facility operated by ExxonMobil and demanded information from its crew. This act increased tensions in the long-held territorial dispute between the two nations. Guyana condemned the incursion and reinforced its military presence, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining sovereignty while seeking peaceful resolutions. Venezuela countered by asserting that the waters in question are part of a disputed maritime area, denying any breach of sovereignty.
The past year and a half have seen fluctuating tensions regarding the Essequibo territory. In September 2023, Venezuela’s National Assembly began a referendum process to create the state of “Guayana Esequiba,” despite an International Court of Justice (ICJ) directive to refrain from actions until a ruling was issued. The referendum took place on December 3, with Guyana challenging its legality shortly after. Concurrently, Venezuelan military enhancements on Anacoco Island, seized in 1966, raised alarms. In response to escalating tensions, leaders of both countries met, resulting in the Argyle Accords, which aimed to de-escalate the situation.
Despite efforts for peaceful resolutions, military tensions continued, especially following a UK warship’s deployment to Guyana, resulting in Venezuelan military preparations. As of April 2024, Maduro enacted a law formalizing the state of “Guayana Esequiba,” further straining relations. Tensions briefly eased as the Maduro regime transitioned to presidential elections but resurfaced in January 2025, when plans emerged for a Venezuelan governor for the contested region, prompting Guyana to seek ICJ intervention. Notably, clashes on the border resulted in injuries to six Guyanese soldiers.
Maduro’s renewed focus on the Essequibo issue is partly to unify support domestically, especially given the upcoming elections. Recent intelligence suggests a military build-up in the region, aligning with strategies to exert pressure on Guyana and demonstrate regime power. This also coincides with shifts in U.S. policy that could affect Maduro’s calculations. Heightened Venezuelan military activity appears intended to test U.S. resolve and regional stability ahead of Guyana’s elections.
Unlike previous incidents, the March 1 incursion signifies a more aggressive step. Venezuela has traditionally claimed overlapping maritime areas with Guyana, but this incident involves direct intimidation of Guyana’s oil operations, specifically targeting ExxonMobil’s activities. The Venezuelan navy’s actions happened well within the operational vicinity of Guyana’s capital, Georgetown, signaling an escalated threat against Guyanese sovereign claims.
International involvement is essential for resolving the crisis stemming from Venezuela’s actions. Without robust support, there is little incentive for Caracas to change course. Maduro seems to be leveraging geopolitical dynamics, attempting to depict Guyana’s President as provocative while challenging external influences from the U.S. to assert control. The U.S. has shown fluctuations in commitment to regional partners, potentially leaving room for other powers, like Brazil and China, to influence negotiations. The UK has responded with military support, emphasizing the need for international solidarity against Venezuelan aggression, while Europe expresses an interest in maintaining stability in the region. A unified international approach is critical to deter further Venezuelan provocations and stabilize Guyana.
Venezuela’s recent naval incursion into Guyana marks a notable escalation in their longstanding territorial dispute. With both nations increasing military readiness and international involvement becoming crucial, the situation highlights the delicate balance of regional power dynamics. Internal political motivations for the Maduro regime complicate the conflict further, potentially provoking broader geopolitical implications. The necessity for coordinated international response underscores the risks of unchecked Venezuelan aggression and a possible destabilization of the region’s geopolitics.
Original Source: www.csis.org
