Hezbollah is facing a severe crisis after significant losses against Israel and the death of Hassan Nasrallah. The group has shown resilience through massive funeral turnout, indicating strong support among Lebanese Shiites. Maintaining arms and securing reconstruction funds are critical priorities for Hezbollah as they navigate post-war challenges while mitigating community discontent.
Hezbollah is currently facing a critical crisis, with the recent death of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and significant military losses from Israel. The group’s military arsenal has been notably diminished, and many of its fighters have perished. This situation has led to skepticism among its Lebanese Shiite supporters, further compounded by the Syrian regime’s collapse affecting supply lines through Syria. Critics within the Shiite community have begun to hold Hezbollah accountable for the ongoing economic hardship and devastation caused by the conflict with Israel.
In this precarious context, Nasrallah’s funeral on February 23 presented Hezbollah with a vital opportunity to bolster its standing within Lebanon. The significant turnout at the event served as a show of solidarity and strength for the organization, deterring potential governmental backlash against them, such as calls for disarmament.
Hezbollah’s strength primarily derives from its substantial support among Lebanese Shiites, who represent the largest sect in Lebanon. In the May 2022 parliamentary elections, Hezbollah secured approximately 356,000 votes out of 1.8 million, ahead of all other political parties. Current support among Shiite communities remains robust, with polls indicating 89% to 93% approval ratings for Hezbollah, emphasizing the organization’s ability to maintain popularity despite recent setbacks.
This support is attributed to Hezbollah’s long-standing engagement model, which values responsiveness to community needs over territorial control. This strategy has allowed Hezbollah to cultivate a wide and flexible base of support, significantly contributing to its legitimacy within Lebanon’s power-sharing framework. The extent of their support has direct implications for Hezbollah’s influence in the political landscape of Lebanon.
Moving forward, popular support will be pivotal for Hezbollah to achieve essential post-war objectives, notably the retention of its arms. Following a ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah’s new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, acknowledged that arms control discussions would need to occur through national dialogue in Lebanon, hinting at an approach that speaks to the group’s ongoing tactical flexibility regarding its weapons.
Another critical objective for Hezbollah is ensuring that post-war reconstruction initiatives effectively benefit their community. Qassem has positioned the Lebanese government to take responsibility for attracting aid and managing reconstruction efforts while emphasizing Hezbollah’s commitment to its community. The organization views the restoration of financial support from international sources as vital to countering disenchantment among its base after recent conflicts.
The turnout at Nasrallah’s funeral was significant, reflecting Hezbollah’s capacity to rally support. Estimates of attendees ranged from hundreds of thousands to over a million, with differing reports from various sources. Information International, a research firm based in Beirut, estimated attendance to be between 700,000 and 900,000, indicating robust community engagement.
This turnout has reinforced Hezbollah’s domestic standing and complicates the Lebanese government’s position on potential actions against the group. Political leaders, including President Joseph Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, appear reluctant to undermine Hezbollah’s influence following the strong show of support.
As Prime Minister Nawaf Salam embarks on a challenging term, navigating reconstruction and governance in Lebanon will require cooperation with Hezbollah, particularly given the substantial quest for progress in recovering from economic hardship. Hezbollah’s ability to leverage its support becomes crucial in shaping the interaction with governmental reforms and reconstruction efforts.
The turnout at the funeral signifies that Hezbollah can still mobilize significant support, sending a clear message to both political opponents and the Lebanese government. While outright survival is not guaranteed, Hezbollah has established a resilient foothold in Lebanon, shaping the community’s political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Hezbollah’s ability to mobilize extensive support during Nasrallah’s funeral highlights its enduring influence within Lebanon despite recent challenges. The event acted as a crucial reaffirmation of loyalty from the Shiite community, reinforcing Hezbollah’s domestic legitimacy. As the group positions itself for reconstruction and arms retention post-conflict, it must navigate the complexities of Lebanese politics while addressing the pressing needs of its constituents. The organization’s future will significantly depend on its responsiveness to community concerns amid the ongoing socio-economic turmoil in Lebanon.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
