Ethiopia’s Impending Conflict with Eritrea: A Strategic Perspective

Ethiopia faces escalating tensions with Eritrea, fueled by Abiy Ahmed’s revival of imperial ambitions reminiscent of Haile Selassie. Internal ethnic fragmentation poses significant challenges to his authoritarian rule, prompting fears of conflict as a means to consolidate power. The implications of such a war could destabilize the already volatile Horn of Africa, necessitating urgent diplomatic engagement to prevent disaster.

Ethiopia is facing a severe risk of conflict with Eritrea, fueled by escalating national rhetoric surrounding the annexation of Eritrea’s coastline. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s regime embodies a revival of imperial ambitions reminiscent of Haile Selassie and poses a significant threat to regional stability. Given Ethiopia’s history of ethnic fragmentation, this rhetoric may indicate a dangerous path toward renewed hostilities between the two nations.

Abiy’s authoritarian rule is increasingly challenged by decades-old ethno-political divisions that threaten his governance. While historically divided into various ethnic groups, Ethiopia’s fragmentation has worsened under the current regime’s rule, which has used propaganda to shift blame for these divisions onto previous governments, notably Meles Zenawi’s. Zenawi’s introduction of ethnic federalism aimed to balance power among diverse groups, but Ethiopia’s ethnic divisions existed long before.

A potential war with Eritrea could serve as a means for Abiy to consolidate power and distract from internal issues. Aspiring to unify a country marred by ethnic violence, Abiy’s military conflict could act as a rallying point. Facing increasing discontent within his Oromo support base, Abiy may view war as an escape route to silence opposition in a politically unstable environment.

Abiy’s ambitions extend beyond mere territorial claims; they signify his quest for political survival. His focus on Eritrea’s access to the Red Sea is a reflection of his regime’s challenges, built more on coercion than popular support. Opposing internal threats from various factions provides a pretext to strengthen his grip on power while using the conflict against Eritrea as justification.

The ramifications of war extend beyond Ethiopian borders, especially given the regional instability marked by Sudan’s civil unrest and South Sudan’s fragility. A renewed conflict would not only destabilize Ethiopia and Eritrea but could also become a catalyst for wider regional chaos, threatening the entire Horn of Africa.

Although Eritrea favors a cautious approach to conflict, it may retaliate if provoked. Such actions could embroil regional and international actors in escalating tensions, compounding existing struggles for security and stability across the region where Ethiopia and Eritrea are pivotal players.

The Tigray War exemplifies this trend. It was orchestrated by both Ethiopian and Eritrean regimes with the goal of neutralizing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The catastrophic conflict left hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced, while the neglect from global media highlighted an alarming lack of international awareness.

The protracted siege of Tigray and the systematic deprivation of essential supplies revealed a brutal strategy akin to historical atrocities. Abiy’s tactics have drawn comparisons to those of past oppressive regimes, marking a shocking escalation that ensured the survival of both his and Afewerki’s governments at a grave humanitarian cost.

In the wake of the Tigray conflict, the Pretoria peace agreement has done little to secure lasting peace or address underlying tensions. Although it weakened the Tigray Defense Forces, the agreement left them vulnerable yet resolute to seek retaliation, thereby solidifying Abiy’s control over Ethiopia.

Abiy must ensure the Tigray region does not rise again as a threat while fostering animosity towards Eritrea. This serves to prevent possible uprisings aligned against him. Alternatively, for Afewerki, the conflict was an opportunity to suppress dissent and bolster his authoritarian grip, ensuring the impossibility of political collaboration between Tigrayans and Eritreans.

Recurrent crimes during the Tigray war expose complicity at the highest levels of both governments. The Ethiopian regime’s alliance with Eritrea transformed a domestic conflict into a regional crisis, underscoring the fragility of governance in both nations. This raises critical questions regarding Eritrea’s sovereignty and the cost of Afewerki’s rule in prolonging his leadership through conflict.

For Eritrea, change may emerge from within its military ranks, particularly from junior officers who carry the potential to challenge the status quo. Existing opposition groups, however, face scrutiny regarding their true allegiance amid this crisis. These developments have severe implications for the Horn of Africa as the specter of renewed conflict looms, necessitating urgent diplomatic attention to prevent a catastrophic escalation.

The current trajectory of Ethiopia towards potential conflict with Eritrea poses severe implications for regional stability in the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed’s regime relies on hostile rhetoric and military action to consolidate power amidst internal discontent, while Eritrea remains vulnerable to unintended provocations. Significant diplomatic engagement is crucial to avert disaster, as the legacy of the Tigray conflict serves as a grim reminder of the human cost of political maneuvers. The necessity for comprehensive strategies to address ethnic tensions without resorting to war remains imperative for the future peace and unity of the region.

Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu