Portugal’s ruling Democratic Alliance (AD) won the most seats in the election but fell short of a majority, with far-right Chega gaining ground. AD leader Luis Montenegro rejects coalition with Chega, needing support from smaller parties to govern. Key issues include a housing crisis and immigration, impacting voter sentiment amid ongoing instability in the political arena.
In the recent general election in Portugal, the ruling Democratic Alliance (AD) emerged victorious, yet again fell short of securing a majority in parliament. With almost all results in, the AD claimed 32.7% of the vote—far below the 42% necessary for a clear majority in the 230-seat assembly. The Socialist Party trailed with 23.4%, while the far-right Chega party took 22.6%. Currently, only four seats remain unassigned, indicating a potential shift in the political landscape.
Back in the last election of 2024, the AD garnered 29% of the vote, which led to a minority government later collapsing this year. Luis Montenegro, the acting Prime Minister and leader of the AD, has firmly rejected the idea of forming a coalition with the far-right Chega party, which he has previously labeled unacceptable. Meanwhile, the Liberal Initiative (IL) is anticipated to secure between 4% and 8% of the votes, indicating a fragmentation within the political spectrum.
For the AD to establish a majority, it will likely need to negotiate with smaller parties. Should they remain a minority government, it could thwart hopes for political stability in Portugal, which is currently grappling with its most challenging political turmoil in decades. This election marks the third in just three years, emphasizing the instability in governance.
Calling this election just one year into the center-right government’s term stemmed from Montenegro’s failure to pass a confidence vote in March, triggered by opposition allegations regarding his integrity tied to family consultancy issues. Although Montenegro has denied any misconduct and polls indicated a lack of voter concern regarding the accusations, the ongoing political strife has clearly taken its toll.
The Chega party, which Montenegro has refused to cooperate with, looks set to outperform predictions of 18%. Despite recent health problems faced by its leader, Andre Ventura, which included two hospital visits for an esophageal spasm, the party still managed to maintain appealing momentum. Their strong performance comes after Chega dramatically increased its seats from 12 to 50 in the last election by campaigning for a tighter immigration policy.
Key issues in this election have revolved around housing and immigration—an ongoing challenge for the nation. Over the past decade, Portugal has dealt with an increasing number of immigrants. Legal immigrants swelled from under 500,000 in 2018 to more than 1.5 million by early this year, with a significant number hailing from Brazil and other Asian nations, primarily filling roles in tourism and agriculture. The government’s pre-election announcement to expel around 18,000 undocumented foreigners has further fueled debate.
Simultaneously, a housing crisis has seen prices and rents skyrocket over the last ten years, largely driven by an influx of higher-income foreign nationals. House prices surged by another 9% last year, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE). In the Lisbon area, rental prices rose more than 7%—the steepest increase in three decades. Compounding these issues is Portugal’s status as one of the poorest nations in Western Europe, where the average monthly salary was around €1,200 ($1,340) last year and the minimum wage rests at €870 ($974).
In summary, the Democratic Alliance’s recent electoral win does not provide the majority needed to ensure stable governance, plunging Portugal back into a potential period of political instability. As the party faces a rising far-right challenge and deals with pressing issues such as immigration and skyrocketing housing prices, it becomes clearer that coalition deals will be necessary for effective rule, making the future uncertain for both the government and the electorate. The path forward remains complex as Portugal navigates its current political landscape and rising social concerns.
Original Source: www.dw.com
