In Tigray, tensions are escalating due to a power struggle within the TPLF following a failed ceasefire post-war. A coup appears to have unfolded as rival factions vie for control amid fears of new conflict. Ethiopia’s disputes with Eritrea over port access add to the instability, causing concerns about an imminent interstate war. Political leaders urge for diplomatic negotiations to avert a humanitarian catastrophe.
Aregawi, a former tour guide, finds himself amidst escalating conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. After two years of frontline fighting, he fears that Tigray is nearing a new war. He stated, “We don’t want to become a battleground, but it seems like war is near, maybe even inevitable.”
The Tigray conflict with the Ethiopian federal government ended in 2022, resulting in massive casualties, including 600,000 deaths and widespread sexual violence. Despite a ceasefire, vital provisions were not implemented, such as the repatriation of displaced residents, leading to internal discord within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Recent tensions heightened when interim president Getachew Reda attempted to dismiss military leaders accused of a coup. A faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael seized control of key government and media positions in Tigray, prompting Getachew’s retreat to the capital. A violent skirmish in Tigray resulted in three fatalities, exacerbating public panic and an exodus of residents seeking safety abroad.
Amidst internal strife, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are also rising. Despite cooperating in Tigray, they are at odds over Ethiopia’s need for Red Sea access lost during Eritrea’s secession in 1993. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has emphasized the crucial nature of sea access for Ethiopia’s growth, calling the loss of the coastline a historical error.
Eritrea has mobilized nationwide and is allegedly supporting rebel factions in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, leading to escalated military tensions. Ethiopia’s government has reinforced its presence along the Eritrean border while the media circulates narratives framing Eritrea’s claims to Assab port as unjustified.
Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae of Tigray warned that war could spark again any moment. Former envoys Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos characterized the situation as a volatile scenario that could lead to interstate conflict. Abiy expressed a desire for a peaceful resolution, emphasizing negotiations without military confrontation.
Tigray’s new leadership aims to regain fertile territories lost during the conflict, particularly gold-bearing western Tigray, complicating the situation further. Political analysts suggest that without a resolution, tensions may escalate, putting the region at risk of renewed conflict.
The situation in Tigray is precarious, with power struggles within the TPLF and rising violence foreshadowing potential conflict. Ethiopia’s geopolitical challenges with Eritrea complicate matters further, as territorial ambitions could ignite broader warfare. Stakeholders express urgency for a negotiated settlement to avoid a repeat of past atrocities. The outcome hinges on local leadership responses and Abiy’s diplomatic maneuvers to maintain stability.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
