In February 2025, extreme rainfall in southern Botswana and eastern South Africa caused severe flooding that resulted in 31 deaths and displaced over 5,000 people. The study highlights the influence of human-induced climate change in intensifying rainfall events and the inadequacy of urban infrastructure in managing these challenges. Recommendations for enhanced resilience include improving drainage systems and urban planning.
In February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa experienced heavy rainfall that led to devastating floods, resulting in at least 31 fatalities, including nine in Gaborone. The floods displaced over 5,000 individuals and caused shutdowns of key government functions and transportation systems. The intense rainfall from February 16-20 overwhelmed infrastructure, isolating communities and complicating emergency responses.
An international team of scientists studied the flooding event to investigate how human-induced climate change affected rainfall patterns. The focus was placed on severe rainfall occurrences in the region, as depicted in relevant data visualizations. Analysis included the trend of maximum rainfall over five-day periods, particularly in areas experiencing severe flooding.
Flooding is common during the rainy season in urbanized areas like Gaborone, where outdated drainage systems struggle to manage increased rainfall. Compared to a historical climate, the February 2025 heavy rainfall event, exacerbated by a 1.3 °C temperature rise, had a low likelihood of occurrence, with a return period estimated at 40 years.
Evidence suggested that human-induced climate change significantly increased the intensity of such rainfall events, potentially estimating an increase in occurrence likelihood by 60% if the climate were colder. However, while some climate models suggested greater occurrences of extreme rain, others indicated no change, complicating precise quantification of climate change’s influence.
Under future projections of a 2.6 °C temperature rise, models predict further increases in rainfall intensity, signaling climate change implications. Given the challenges faced by existing urban infrastructure, including roads and drainage systems, the request for enhancement of resilience through improved planning surfaces as essential.
Enhancing flood resilience in Gaborone requires improved drainage systems, purposeful land use regulation, and disaster preparedness strategies. Upgrading critical infrastructure, reinforcing early warning systems, and integrating multi-hazard assessments into planning can further mitigate the impacts of future extreme weather events.
The floods in Gaborone in February 2025 were intensified by increasing extreme rainfall linked to human-induced climate change and rapid urbanization. Existing drainage systems are inadequate for handling such severe weather events, exacerbating their impacts. Continuous efforts to bolster infrastructure resilience and thorough urban planning are vital to mitigate future flooding risks and enhance disaster preparedness.
Original Source: www.preventionweb.net
