Brazil’s sugarcane harvest faces threats due to ongoing drought and poor rainfall. Analysts present mixed forecasts, with Datagro predicting a decline and Hedgepoint a modest increase in production. Major concerns include slow growth, crop damage, and diminished yields, especially in severely affected regions like Jaú and Ribeirão Preto. The outcome is contingent on rainfall in the coming months.
Dry weather poses significant risks to Brazil’s upcoming sugarcane harvest for 2025/26, beginning in April. The Center-South region, crucial for sugarcane production, is experiencing worsening conditions due to a lack of rainfall in February and early March. Many crops are still recovering from a drought in 2024, further complicating the situation.
Forecasts from various sources are inconsistent, with some analysts predicting a rise in sugarcane crushing while traders foresee a notable decrease in yield. Datagro, a consultancy, anticipates a production of 612 million tonnes, down 1.4% from the current season. In contrast, Hedgepoint offers a more optimistic expectation of 630 million tonnes, though they caution that dry weather from March to May could adversely affect output.
Sucden expresses a cautious outlook, estimating production between 590 million and 600 million tonnes. Inauthentic feedback from producers indicates a general expectation of a minimum decline of 15% in yields. José Guilherme Nogueira from Orplana stresses that slow growth and poor sprouting are significant issues affecting the plantations’ health.
Reports from growers indicate that even crops not directly damaged by 2024 fires are struggling to regrow, prompting costly replanting actions. The Jaú region is facing extreme shortages and productivity could drop by up to 25%, according to Eduardo Romão. Other regions such as Araçatuba may experience even harsher yields.
In areas like Ribeirão Preto, farmers are also preparing for lower production despite not facing severe drought levels. Datagro’s analysis indicates some regions, particularly Ribeirão Preto and Araçatuba, are severely impacted by rainfall deficiencies, with some areas lacking up to 70% of expected precipitation.
While soil water levels remain relatively stable in certain regions, the overall health of sugarcane crops is declining due to a combination of poor sprouting and growth patterns. According to Datagro, reduced productivity is expected in the early part of the harvest season, with outcomes in April largely dependent on rainfall levels, as pointed out by president Plínio Nastari.
The sugarcane sector in Brazil is facing a precarious situation due to ongoing dry weather conditions. Forecasts from various consultancies show mixed expectations for the upcoming harvest, with significant drops in productivity anticipated in regions heavily affected by drought. Growers are expressing concern over the health of their crops and future yields. The outcome of the harvest largely hinges on rainfall during the critical months of March to May, emphasizing the urgent need for improved weather conditions.
Original Source: valorinternational.globo.com
