South Sudan faces increased insecurity, with clashes between forces loyal to President Kiir and Vice President Machar threatening the fragile 2018 peace deal. Political tensions following a cabinet reshuffle have intensified ethnic strife. With Uganda’s military support for Kiir and escalating economic pressures, the possibility of a full-scale civil war looms, risking ethnic cleansing and further destabilization.
Recent weeks have seen a significant escalation of violence in South Sudan, particularly in the Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal regions. Renewed skirmishes between military forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar highlight the fragility of the power-sharing agreement established by the 2018 peace deal. This agreement ended a five-year civil war that left over 400,000 dead, and its potential collapse poses dire consequences for the country.
The South Sudanese government has accused Machar, who leads the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), of collaborating with the White Army militia group, primarily composed of the Nuer ethnic group. Following an attack on a military base on March 4 in Nasir, arrests of Machar’s allies intensified strife between the opposing factions. The incident also highlighted the challenges of enforcing peace amid severe military confrontations and ongoing tensions related to the ethnic affiliations of the leaders involved.
In February, violent protests erupted in Western Bahr el-Ghazal, triggered by President Kiir’s unilateral cabinet reshuffle, which was perceived as undermining the power-sharing mechanisms of the 2018 agreement. The dismissals of key officials, including some Vice Presidents, resurrected ethnic tensions, particularly as the reshuffle favored the Dinka, Kiir’s ethnic group. This contentious political move was seen as a strategic effort by Kiir to consolidate his power ahead of the postponed elections.
On March 11, Uganda deployed troops to Juba to support Kiir’s regime, stemming from its geographical proximity and concern over regional instability and refugee influxes. Historically, Uganda has intervened during South Sudan’s unrest but its current presence may exacerbate tensions as it solidifies support for Kiir’s administration. This military backing could obstruct discourse for peace while maintaining an undercurrent of conflict within the western regions of South Sudan.
Economic pressures from the conflict in Sudan and infrastructure damage to oil facilities have aggravated South Sudan’s economic situation. With the loss of oil revenues and a significant influx of Sudanese refugees, the nation faces a fiscal crisis manifesting as rising food prices and reduced imports. President Kiir’s centralized control of resources has fostered resentment and ethnic discord, complicating an already precarious political landscape.
The ethnic dynamics of the conflict are primarily driven by the instrumentalization of ethnicity by political elites, leading to targeted violence against rival groups. Power-sharing agreements post-civil war have failed to address core issues, such as equitable resource distribution, thus perpetuating local violence. Experts indicate that situations like the potential battle for Malakal may lead to widespread ethnic massacres, further destabilizing the region and encompassing broader implications for the nation.
There is widespread disillusionment among South Sudanese citizens, with 69 percent of the population requiring humanitarian assistance. The risk of deteriorating conditions under an unstable regime raises fears of ethnic cleansing and a resurgence of violence. The uncertainty surrounding future democratic elections, repeatedly delayed and now scheduled for 2026, leaves citizens questioning the prospects for genuine democratic governance and accountability.
In summary, South Sudan is critically approaching the brink of all-out war due to escalating violence fueled by ethnic divisions and political maneuvers. The fragile peace established in 2018 is under severe threat from renewed military engagements, governmental instability, and economic crises exacerbated by regional conflicts. The societal implications of potential unrest could drive further humanitarian crises, with significant impacts on political stability and the future governance of the nation.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
