South Sudan faces rising violence, with increased clashes between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. The government’s accusations against Machar, coupled with economic instability and ethnic tensions, threaten the fragile 2018 peace deal. Uganda’s military support adds further complexity to the situation, while approximately 69% of the population requires humanitarian assistance amid deteriorating conditions.
Recent violence in South Sudan has intensified, particularly in Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal states. Clashes between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar have escalated, leading to the arrest of several of Machar’s allies including high-ranking military officials. The fragile 2018 peace deal, which ended a brutal civil war with over 400,000 casualties, faces significant jeopardy as tensions rise.
The South Sudanese government has accused Machar of collaborating with the White Army militia, primarily composed of the Neur ethnic group, following a military base attack on March 4 in Nasir. The incident fueled further discord, as officials loyal to Machar claim violations of the peace agreement. A failed UN rescue mission for a Dinka commander resulted in fatalities, further complicating the situation.
Earlier unrest in Western Bahr el-Ghazal stemmed from President Kiir’s controversial cabinet reshuffle, perceived as an attempt to consolidate power ahead of upcoming elections. His dismissal of several key officials was interpreted as a “soft coup” undermining the power-sharing elements of the 2018 agreement, exacerbating ethnic tensions in a historically volatile region.
On March 11, Uganda dispatched special forces to assist the South Sudan government. However, previous deployments have done little to resolve long-standing tensions between ethnic groups. Uganda seeks to prevent instability from spilling over its border, but its support for Kiir risks complicating dialogue for peace.
The situation is exacerbated by economic woes fueled by regional conflicts in Sudan, notably the clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. The impacts include damaged oil infrastructure, rising inflation, and increasing discontent among the South Sudanese populace due to the dual crises affecting oil revenues and food security.
The instrumentalization of ethnic identities for political gain by Kiir’s administration contributes significantly to the current unrest. Kiir’s handling of oil revenue—largely monopolized by Dinka elites—has ignited ethnic rivalry, particularly against Machar’s Nuer forces. Despite attempts at power-sharing, underlying issues of ethnic patronage and centralized resource control have persisted, undermining peace efforts.
Analysts fear escalating violence might target urban areas like Malakal, potentially triggering widespread ethnically driven violence. The specter of conflict remains as Machar’s forces eye strategic locations, raising concerns over further destabilization in South Sudan. Feeling abandoned, 69% of the population now requires humanitarian assistance, mainly due to a collapsing governmental structure that has not facilitated adequate support during ongoing crises. With repeated postponements of democratic elections, many South Sudanese question the prospects of democratically elected governance in the future.
The ongoing insecurity and violence in South Sudan, exacerbated by political machinations, economic challenges, and ethnic tensions, pose a grave threat to the stability of the nation. The fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement is at risk of collapse, threatening to plunge the country back into chaos. Without genuine dialogue and reconciliation, the cycle of violence is likely to continue, resulting in dire humanitarian implications for the South Sudanese population.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
