Ethiopia and Eritrea face the threat of renewed conflict due to internal tensions in Tigray and deteriorating political relations. International stakeholders, particularly Gulf states and Western allies, must intervene to halt hostilities and seek diplomatic solutions to prevent further regional instability.
The recent cessation of hostilities agreement between Ethiopia and the Tigrayan opposition aimed to end a devastating war that had claimed over 600,000 lives, establishing a frail interim administration in Tigray. As the two-year anniversary approaches, tensions are heightened, with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) battling for influence against interim administration factions. Following internal conflict within the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF), fears of a coup or assassination grow as rivalries intensify within Tigray.
In a volatile regional context, deteriorating conditions in Tigray could ignite an interstate conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The situation is exacerbated by historical enmities and military alignments, notably following the Pretoria Agreement, which called for Eritrean troop withdrawal but led to ongoing accusations and mistrust between Addis Ababa and Asmara.
Mobilization on all sides indicates an impending conflict as Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Tigrayan forces prepare for potential hostilities. The implications could be severe, dragging in external interests and destabilizing surrounding regions, including Sudan, which is already facing a civil war. With a backdrop of regional instability and international tensions, a new conflict in the Horn of Africa threatens to overshadow current crises and exacerbate existing humanitarian disasters.
International engagement is crucial; Gulf countries with vested interests must leverage their influence to prevent escalation. A coordinated effort involving Western and Middle Eastern states could potentially facilitate dialogue among key players, seeking to address the roots of the conflict in a proactive manner rather than reactive measures. Without this diplomatic intervention, the risk of unchecked violence and territorial disputes looms large, promising chaos in an already unsettled region.
The article stresses the urgent need for intervention to prevent renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which could have drastic regional implications. As tensions rise within Tigray and mistrust builds between Ethiopia and Eritrea, international stakeholders, particularly those in the Gulf, can play a pivotal role in mediating peace. Failure to act could result in far-reaching consequences that would destabilize the Horn of Africa and escalate humanitarian crises.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
