Recent commentary suggests Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s regime may resort to war against Eritrea amid internal crises in Ethiopia. Analysts highlight Abiy’s motivations as a desperate attempt to maintain power, focusing on the dire economic situation, political fragmentation, escalating ethnic tensions, and increased reliance on drone warfare. The article warns of significant risks to regional stability, calling for international attention to prevent conflict escalation.
In recent weeks, there has been increasing speculation regarding a possible Ethiopian invasion of Eritrea, driven by war propaganda from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Commentary suggests that Abiy’s military is interested in obtaining a naval base with access to the sea, especially focusing on Eritrea’s vital port of Assab. Concerns from analysts across Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia are mounting regarding Abiy’s potential aggression.
While some skeptics dismiss the likelihood of war due to Abiy’s internal challenges, a comprehensive analysis reveals a more alarming scenario. Internal conflicts among factions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) indicate a strong possibility of war as Abiy strives to integrate Tigrayan forces into his military. Abiy’s backing of Getachew’s faction through military advisers is evident, showcasing his precarious leadership amid cascading crises that hint at a regime on the brink of collapse.
Abiy’s motivations do not appear to stem from a genuine desire for military dominance. The prospective conflict seems more like a tactical diversion, aimed at prolonging his political survival amidst severe domestic challenges, including:
1. Economic Collapse: Ethiopia faces rampant inflation and severe currency shortages while depleting its $5 billion IMF loan, worsened by a suspension of U.S. aid.
2. Political Fragmentation: Unresolved conflict with the TPLF and insurgent groups such as Fano and OLA have led to ungovernability of vast regions, limiting Abiy’s influence to Addis Ababa.
3. Ethnic Tensions: Ongoing ethnic conflicts threaten national stability, with hundreds of thousands reportedly killed and millions displaced since 2018.
4. Drone Warfare: Abiy’s increasing reliance on drone strikes has alarmed both domestic and international observers as violent confrontations escalate amid claims of ethnic violence.
Considering these pressures, Abiy may perceive conflict with Eritrea as a strategic distraction, expecting Eritrea to focus defensively. This initiates a potential shift of international blame from internal crises to Eritrea. However, this approach is seen as dangerously reckless, prioritizing personal survival over national interests. The ramifications for regional peace could be significant, urging international vigilance against this manipulative strategy and highlighting the need for urgent intervention to prevent further conflict escalation.
In conclusion, the mounting speculation around a potential war between Ethiopia and Eritrea illustrates the precarious position of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Faced with severe domestic issues, Abiy’s possible militaristic diversion reflects a desperate attempt to escape political vulnerability. Observations from analysts suggest that the implications of such a conflict could severely destabilize the region and necessitate urgent action from the international community to avert disaster.
Original Source: borkena.com
