The National Bank of Kazakhstan raised the base rate by 1.25 percentage points to 16.5% amid economic uncertainties. Analyst Rassul Rysmambetov cites U.S. policy shifts, economic liberalization, and VAT increases as key factors driving inflation concerns. The current global tariff war could further complicate Kazakhstan’s economic landscape.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) has increased its base rate from 15.25% to 16.5%, marking a significant rise of 1.25 percentage points amid heightened economic uncertainty. This decision is viewed as preemptive due to concerns over rising tariffs, an impending VAT increase, and economic deregulation potentially exacerbating inflation, as reported by Kazinform on March 7.
Independent financial analyst Rassul Rysmambetov identified three primary factors leading to this rate hike. First, changes in U.S. policies under Donald Trump’s administration, particularly regarding energy, may influence Kazakhstan’s fiscal standing and inflation forecasts. Second, a decree from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev promoting economic liberalization indicates a trend toward the deregulation of prices and tariffs. Finally, the proposal to increase VAT has intensified inflation expectations among consumers.
According to Rysmambetov, “If there had not been such an active attack on oil and inflation expectations related to VAT, the situation could have been much more stable.” He emphasizes the unpredictability of current global events, noting that nobody could have anticipated the recent developments.
He further warns, “The tariff war between the US, Europe, Canada, Mexico, and China is a global change that we feel as part of the global economy.” Rysmambetov stresses the necessity for Kazakhstan, as an oil-producing nation, to reconsider some economic strategies in light of potential repercussions from the global tariff conflicts.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate increase to 16.5% reflects a proactive response to various economic pressures. Rassul Rysmambetov underscores the effects of U.S. policy shifts, domestic economic liberalization, and rising VAT expectations as contributing factors. The ongoing global tariff war also poses risks that must be addressed to stabilize the economy moving forward.
Original Source: astanatimes.com
