South Sudan is at risk of renewed conflict as military tension escalates, particularly following a Nuer militia’s capture of a key army base. The fragile 2018 peace accord is under threat from ongoing violence and economic crises exacerbated by the war in Sudan. With deepening political instability, urgent diplomatic intervention is needed to avert a potential descent into widespread violence and ethnic conflict.
South Sudan is facing a potential resurgence of conflict as political tensions escalate following recent military actions. On March 4, a Nuer militia aligned with Riek Machar, the first vice president and former rebel leader, captured an army base in Nasir, located on the South Sudan-Ethiopia border. Machar accuses President Salva Kiir’s forces of attacking his loyalists, raising fears of further instability within the fragile unity government established under a 2018 peace deal.
The 2018 agreement, meant to end South Sudan’s civil war, has remained unstable. Despite avoiding large-scale clashes between Kiir and Machar, violence continues at a local level, exacerbated by conflict in neighboring Sudan, which began in April 2023. This ongoing war has compounded pressures on Kiir’s administration by severing vital oil revenue flows due to pipeline damage, driving the regime into a fiscal crisis and igniting widespread discontent among South Sudanese citizens.
Kiir has had to navigate a challenging relationship with both sides in Sudan’s conflict, aligning initially with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan but also engaging with General Hemedti’s forces, given the strategic importance of the oil pipeline. Tensions escalated as the pipeline’s disruption raised suspicions of intentional sabotage by the RSF, prompting high-stakes negotiations to restore oil flows. As relations soured with Burhan’s government, Juba has increasingly leaned towards Hemedti and the UAE, further straining political stability.
The Upper Nile region risks becoming a battleground as hostilities spill over from Sudan’s war, particularly if the Sudanese army activates support for Nuer militias. If these militias gain strength, potential conflicts could center around key locations such as Malakal, fostering communal violence and animalizing a larger ethnic conflict that could be hard to contain. The South Sudanese army may take aggressive actions to reclaim control over key areas.
As conflicts intensify, Kiir’s political maneuvers, including the detention of Machar’s associates, seem to be aimed at consolidating power within his Dinka constituency. Recent violent incidents, including the death of a crucial Dinka general, have heightened tensions further. The potential for escalation remains, and should war break out again, it may leave Machar vulnerable, with many Nuer fleeing or going into hiding due to increasing fears of repercussions.
Despite the dire scenario, many South Sudanese hope for a resolution. Political fragmentation and the potential collapse of the current regime pose significant risks, including renewed ethnic violence and external intervention from regional militias or neighboring countries looking to exploit the situation. Timely intervention by influential African leaders and support from the UN calling for a de-escalation is vital to prevent the descent into chaos before it’s too late.
The situation in South Sudan remains precarious, with significant risks of renewed conflict fueled by both internal tensions and external factors from neighboring Sudan. Timely diplomatic interventions from regional leaders and international bodies are critical to avoiding a catastrophic collapse of the political and social order in South Sudan. While the 2018 peace agreement is under strain, a concerted effort to de-escalate tensions could prevent a return to violent conflict and ethnic cleansing. Immediate action is essential to protect civilians and uphold stability in the region.
Original Source: www.pmldaily.com
