Climate change is intensifying, diminishing La Niña’s effectiveness amid rising temperatures. The IMD forecasts an early summer with extreme heat. India recorded its hottest February since 1901 and the fifth lowest rainfall since 2001. Jet stream shifts and ENSO patterns are influencing these weather changes, indicating future challenges from El Niño events.
Climate change is intensifying, making the cooling effects of La Niña less effective in a warming environment, according to climate scientists. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an early summer with above-normal temperatures and prolonged heatwaves across India. February 2024 was recorded as the warmest since 1901, accompanied by the fifth lowest rainfall since 2001.
The ongoing climate shifts are attributed to human-induced factors driving a warmer climate, marked by shorter winters and springs, alongside natural yearly weather variations known as year-to-year variability. As noted by Arpita Mondal from IIT Bombay, the current winter was unusually dry, which highlights the cooling effect of rain in maintaining lower temperatures.
Raghu Murtugudde, also from IIT Bombay, points to global temperature anomalies associated with jet stream variations, which are strong winds affecting weather patterns. Mondal’s study indicates that the jet streams’ northward shift in pre-monsoon directly correlates with the intensity and duration of heatwaves.
Climate phenomena like El Niño and La Niña, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), further influence these trends. Vimal Mishra explains that El Niño leads to warmer post-winter conditions, while La Niña tends to bring cooler temperatures. The ENSO oscillation between these states typically lasts 2-7 years.
Recent predictions from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicate that the “weak” La Niña that began in December 2024 is expected to be short-lived. The WMO estimates a 60% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions occurring from March to May 2025.
From March 2024 to February 2025, temperatures were significantly above averages—0.71 degrees Celsius higher than the 1990-2020 average and 1.59 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service. Sea surface temperatures also remain anomalously high in various oceanic regions.
According to Murtugudde, despite some cold water in the tropical Pacific, warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific call into question the labeling of current conditions as La Niña. He emphasizes that ongoing warming trends complicate predictions. Projections suggest that El Niño events will become more frequent and extreme under future climate scenarios.
In 2024, India recorded the highest number of heatwave days in 14 years, totaling 536, coinciding with a notably warm June. Mishra warns that even during ENSO-neutral conditions, severe heatwaves should not be overlooked as temperatures have already begun unusually high in March. The prospect of an El Niño poses significant challenges, while La Niña may no longer provide relief as expected.
In summary, climate change is proving to be a significant factor in altering weather patterns, diminishing the cooling effects of La Niña in an increasingly warmer world. With unprecedented heat records and a shift in seasonal weather interactions, both scientists and meteorological organizations underscore the urgent need to address and adapt to these transformations. Future El Niño events are predicted to be more common and intense, amplifying existing climate challenges.
Original Source: www.theweek.in
