Sudan is in a humanitarian crisis due to a prolonged civil conflict that began in 2023, leading to mass displacement and casualties, while military factions struggle for control amid foreign intervention. The country faces dire prospects for returning to democracy as military control persists and the humanitarian situation worsens.
Sudan is currently facing a dire humanitarian crisis as its civil conflict nears two years, with 30 million urgent cases needing assistance and nearly 12 million displaced. After demonstrations ousted Omar al-Bashir in 2019, the country briefly transitioned towards democracy but faced turmoil when the military ended this partnership in 2021, effectively putting Sudan under military control with Generals al-Burhan and Dagalo at the helm.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Dagalo, evolved from the notorious Janjaweed militia and escalated its military presence, expanding from 5,000 to 100,000 fighters by early 2023. Despite international efforts to revive civilian rule, the military regained control and maintained their dominance, leading to widespread violence across 14 of Sudan’s 18 provinces as fighting intensified in April 2023.
The RSF’s aggressive tactics included seizing Darfur and parts of Khartoum. By late 2023, the RSF controlled significant territories, resulting in over 150,000 casualties and mass starvation due to conflict-related famine. Concurrently, the military faced setbacks but revived itself with new strategies and alliances as civilian casualties dramatically increased due to retaliatory violence.
The event also saw intensified foreign involvement, with countries like the UAE, Iran, and Russia supplying arms to various factions, with the UAE heavily backing the RSF. The SAF has sought support from Iran and Russia to bolster its military efforts and forge new alliances, particularly with the potential for a naval base on the Red Sea.
Despite its integral role in Sudan’s past efforts toward democracy, the U.S.’s recent engagement has been limited to sanctions against military leaders for human rights violations. Nonetheless, its humanitarian assistance remains crucial. Both factions have acknowledged the fragmented control of Sudan, marking a regression to pre-2019 dynamics. The current political climate exhibits a stark divide among former democracy advocates, with few prospects for restoring the hoped-for democratic order.
The civil conflict in Sudan has spiraled into a severe humanitarian crisis with widespread displacement and violence. Military struggles between factions have disrupted any chance for a return to democracy. The involvement of foreign powers exacerbates the situation, reinforcing military control while civilian casualties grow. Without a united effort towards resolution, Sudan’s prospects for peace and stability remain bleak, effectively marking a return to past political dynamics.
Original Source: frontline.thehindu.com
