Experts predict a high likelihood of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia due to deteriorating relations. General Abebe Teklehaymanot (Jobe) highlights military mobilizations and strategic motivations for war, including control of the Assab port and regime change aspirations. Historical failures to neutralize Eritrean military capabilities contribute to the current tensions, which may provoke regional interventions.
Recent predictions by political and military experts suggest a high risk of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia. This tension follows a significant decline in relations between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, which has deteriorated over a short span of three years. The specific underlying reasons for this change remain unclear to the public.
General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known as Jobe, a former commander of the Ethiopian Defense Force, expresses concern about the likelihood of war. In a recent interview, he indicated that numerous indicators point toward increased military mobilization and heightened accusations between the two nations. Jobe stated, “The two countries are likely heading to war,” highlighting the urgency of the situation.
Regarding the unpredictable nature of potential conflict, Jobe noted the importance of understanding war objectives. He identified two main motivations for a possible war: the desire to gain control of the Assab port, which is near Ethiopia’s northeastern border, and the goal to eliminate Shabia, referring to the current ruling party in Eritrea, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ).
Jobe indicated that the possibility of u.s. intervention seemed to fluctuate, suggesting that the U.S. supported regime change at one point but that this stance changed under the Trump administration. He also speculated that other regional powers, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, may intervene based on their strategic interests.
Reflecting on historical conflicts, Jobe expressed regret about failing to dismantle Shabia during the 1998–2000 war, despite having the military capacity to do so. He noted that significant internal rifts within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) regarding military strategy toward Eritrea played a crucial role in the conflict outcomes.
Following the end of active conflict in 2000, Jobe criticized the decision to let Eritrea rebuild its military strength. He referred to the ensuing period as one of “no peace, no war” until the normalization of relations in 2018 by Abiy Ahmed, which recently fractured again, leading to renewed tensions between the two nations.
Jobe warned that if conflict arises between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Tigray could become the main battleground, similar to current concerns held by leaders in that area. His insights provide crucial context for understanding the volatile situation in the Horn of Africa.
The potential for conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia remains a pressing concern, underscored by General Abebe Teklehaymanot’s remarks about increased military activities and strategic motivations for war. With various regional powers likely to intervene for their interests, and the historical context playing a significant role in current dynamics, the situation warrants close monitoring. Failure to address the underlying tensions could lead to widespread consequences, particularly for the Tigray region.
Original Source: borkena.com
