Brazil’s coffee stockpiles are declining sharply as farmers sell their beans in response to record high prices due to ongoing drought conditions. With significant portions of the 2024 crop already sold, experts predict further production declines, highlighting the impact of climate change on coffee availability.
Brazil’s coffee stockpiles are rapidly diminishing as farmers capitalize on soaring prices for coffee beans. Following one of the most severe droughts in history in 2024, coffee farmers have sold nearly all their beans well before the traditional harvest period, with current global prices nearing record highs. Over the past 14 months, arabica coffee prices surged by 70%, while robusta approached a 72% increase, marking significant financial opportunities for growers.
As of February 11, arabica hit an extraordinary price of over US$4.30 per pound, while robusta peaked at US$5,847 per metric ton on February 12. Data from consultancy Safras & Mercado indicated that farmers have already sold 88 percent of their 2024 crop, surpassing both last year’s sales figures of 79 percent and the five-year average of 82 percent. Willian Cesar Freiria, from Cocapec, noted, “We never had such low stocks in February, a period that is still distant from the new crop.”
Freiria reiterated that coffee availability will be severely limited until the next harvest begins around May or June. The world’s largest coffee cooperative, Cooxupe, reported that its farmers have sold 90 percent of their 2024 crop, with Luiz Fernando dos Reis stating, “What they have left is the lowest amount we ever saw in our records.”
While many small-scale farmers have sold off the majority of their coffee, some, like Paulo Armelin from the Cerrado Mineiro region, are holding 40 percent of their harvest for insurance. He indicated he is negotiating prices as high as US$4.50 per pound, a substantial increase from last year’s pricing. Coffee futures trading remains sluggish this year, with sales only reaching 13 percent of the four-year average of 22 percent.
Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, Conab, has anticipated a 4.4 percent decline in the 2025-2026 coffee crop production, projecting production at a three-year low of 51.81 million bags due to ongoing low rainfall that has brought the driest conditions witnessed in decades.
Brazil’s coffee farmers are currently experiencing a historic drought, compelling them to sell their stock earlier than usual to benefit from elevated global prices. In response to these conditions, many farmers have sold up to 90 percent of their production, significantly reducing available inventory before the upcoming harvest. Government forecasts predict further declines in coffee production going forward, underscoring the challenges posed by climate change.
Original Source: macaonews.org
