The political landscape in Guinea-Bissau is fraught with tension following President Embaló’s dissolution of parliament and extension of his term. Opposition parties threaten civil unrest in response. An ECOWAS delegation faced hostility while attempting to mediate the crisis, casting doubt on the organization’s effectiveness. Embaló’s recent decisions to seek a second term and favor French support over regional entities complicate the situation further, highlighting ongoing instability in the country.
In December 2019, Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won the presidential elections, initially securing a five-year mandate. However, by December 2023, he controversially dissolved the parliament without announcing a date for new elections. Opposition leaders condemned this move as a tactic to consolidate power and undermine constitutional governance, threatening mass protests and civil disobedience if elections are not rescheduled.
A significant issue stems from the disagreement regarding the end of Embaló’s term. The opposition claims his mandate concludes on February 27, 2025, as per the constitution. Conversely, the Supreme Court extended his term to September 4, 2025, which the opposition vehemently opposes, leading to heightened tensions.
In September 2024, Embaló announced he would not run for a second term but later suggested he might reconsider after discussions with his family. This uncertainty has contributed to a deteriorating political environment.
On March 3, 2025, an ECOWAS delegation arrived to mediate the political standoff but was met with hostility from Embaló, who warned them to refrain from interfering in Guinea-Bissau’s internal matters. This diplomatic snub raised concerns about ECOWAS’s influence and its ability to manage regional disputes effectively.
After the ECOWAS delegation’s abrupt departure, Embaló confirmed his intention to pursue a second term in the upcoming elections. This decision reflects a preference for French support over regional intervention and raises questions about his relationship with global powers, diverging from past reliance on former colonial power Portugal.
Despite its previous assertive actions, ECOWAS has struggled to intervene effectively in Guinea-Bissau, prompting reflections on its authority and credibility in future conflicts. The actions taken—or not taken—will have lasting implications for the regional body’s intervention strategies.
President Embaló, who once led ECOWAS, has shown a troubling indifference to effective leadership amid this crisis. His decisions risk exacerbating internal divisions and pose threats to national stability amid potential coups. He may need to consult with fellow West African leaders about relying on foreign support in uncertain political landscapes,
The need for skilled mediation is exacerbated by Embaló’s complex political maneuvers. The ongoing turmoil suggests a potential call for experienced diplomats like Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the AU’s representative, emphasizing the urgency of intervention in Guinea-Bissau’s crisis.
In summary, President Embaló’s controversial decisions have intensified political tensions in Guinea-Bissau, raising concerns about the nation’s stability and the effectiveness of ECOWAS. The situation remains precarious, with potential implications for regional governance and international relations. As regional leaders evaluate their engagement strategies, the need for decisive intervention remains critical to mitigate unrest.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
