Tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region rise as two factions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) clash, risking a return to war. Following the 2022 CoHA, which aimed to restore peace, internal disputes persist over governance and representation. The involvement of Tigray’s security forces and potential federal intervention heightens the stakes, complicating the political landscape and calling for urgent resolutions to avoid further violence.
Ethiopia’s Tigray region is at risk of renewed conflict as tensions rise between two factions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Following the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA), which ended a two-year civil war, the TPLF has fractured, leading to disputes over local governance. The faction led by Getachew Reda claims that the leadership under Debretsion Gebremichael is attempting to undermine the interim administration, while Debretsion’s faction argues that the administration is compromising Tigrayan interests.
Previously, the TPLF governed Tigray for over 30 years, enjoying absolute control until recent changes diminished its power within the new Tigray Interim Administration (TIA). Significant efforts towards inclusivity have included the appointment of representatives from various sectors within Tigray society. However, the TIA’s inability to resolve issues such as crime, returning internally displaced persons (IDPs), and restoring Tigrayan authority has led to criticism of its effectiveness.
The rift within the TPLF was highlighted by the August 2024 TPLF Congress, with Getachew’s faction boycotting the meeting, declaring the decisions made by Debretsion’s faction illegal. Some observers have criticized the congressional process, suggesting a lack of transparency from the National Election Board of Ethiopia. This internal strife could potentially foster a healthier political environment, provided it promotes democratic discourse rather than violent confrontations.
Amidst these tensions, both TPLF factions are vying for support from the Tigray security forces, creating a precarious situation. Any direct involvement of the security forces could escalate conflicts, particularly as both factions maintain considerable popular support. Additionally, the youth in Tigray are increasingly vocal, urging political reforms, which could complicate matters further if not managed carefully.
The potential for federal intervention raises further challenges, as many Tigrayans resist outside influence in their governance. Continuous delays in implementing the CoHA have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, with many IDPs yet to be rehabilitated. Reports suggest that Eritrean forces remain active in Tigray, provoking fears of renewed violent confrontation if their presence persists without resolution.
To avert further hostilities, all stakeholders must prioritize the full realization of the CoHA, emphasizing the importance of peaceful negotiations between the TPLF factions. The international community, including the African Union and United Nations, has a critical role in promoting dialogue and adherence to commitments made under the CoHA to stabilize the region. Additionally, Tigray’s security forces must remain impartial to prevent contributing to escalating tensions and ensuring local peace.
The Tigray conflict arose from long-standing political tensions between the TPLF, which led the ruling coalition for years, and the federal government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Following a shift in political structures and rising protests, the TPLF became increasingly isolated, leading to a violent civil war. The CoHA marked a pivotal moment aimed at healing the divisions and forming a more inclusive government in Tigray, although recent factionalism poses new threats.
In summary, to prevent renewed violence in Tigray, it is essential for both TPLF factions to resolve their differences peacefully while upholding the commitments of the CoHA. The situation requires careful management of political dynamics, as well as continued support from international entities to ensure Tigray can stabilize. Fostering an environment where civic discourse can thrive will be crucial to avoiding another cycle of conflict.
Original Source: issafrica.org
