China did not meet its 2024 climate target, with emissions slightly rising as coal remains prevalent despite growing renewable energy sources. The country fell short in reducing carbon intensity and faces challenges in achieving its Paris Agreement commitments. Analysts suggest that structural reforms and increased clean energy infrastructure are necessary for future emissions reductions.
China failed to meet a significant climate target for 2024, with a slight rise in emissions despite an increase in renewable energy sources. Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that carbon intensity dropped 3.4%, falling short of the 3.9% goal. This result indicates that China remains behind its aim of an 18% reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025.
The increase in carbon emissions, although minimal compared to previous years, raises questions about China potentially reaching peak emissions ahead of its 2030 target. Analysts warn that significant challenges exist for China to commit to its Paris Agreement pledges, particularly in reducing carbon intensity by 65% from 2005 levels by 2030.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, stated, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.” This period will be instrumental in assessing China’s dedication to its climate commitments.
Despite being the largest greenhouse gas emitter, China is a leader in renewable energy development, planning to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060. Analysts express the view that emissions may already have plateaued due to slowing economic growth and an increase in renewable energy capacity.
However, determining the peak emissions trajectory requires more data over the coming years. As David Fishman of the Lantau Group remarked, achieving a meaningful decrease in emissions will be challenging before the anticipated peak in 2030, as the current conditions do not support a significant downturn.
The heavy reliance on coal continues to limit progress towards climate targets, despite the rise in clean energy infrastructure. Muyi Yang from Ember notes, “Rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the buildup of clean energy infrastructure.”
Total energy consumption in China rose by 4.3% compared to 2023, with coal accounting for more than half of energy production, despite a notable increase in renewables. Yang indicates that China is nearing a point where future electricity demand will be fulfilled entirely through renewable sources, leading to a potential decline in absolute coal power usage.
Beijing is expected to unveil its 15th Five-Year Plan later this year, which will likely include revised emissions and energy objectives. Additionally, the country missed the deadline for submitting updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, but UN officials anticipate most nations will fulfill these submissions in the current year.
China’s failure to meet its 2024 climate targets highlights ongoing challenges in reducing emissions amidst growing energy needs. Despite advancements in renewable energy, the reliance on coal and rising demand from industrial sectors hinder progress. Analysts note that significant reductions in carbon intensity will be essential to comply with commitments under the Paris Agreement, underscoring the need for structural market reforms and accelerated clean energy investments.
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