China missed its 2024 climate target as emissions rose slightly, even with increased renewable energy. The carbon intensity reduction fell short of goals, implying challenges ahead. Industrial growth outpaces clean energy development, hindering progress. Upcoming plans from Beijing may yield updated climate strategies.
China has failed to meet a crucial climate target for 2024, with official data indicating a slight increase in emissions despite notable additions in renewable energy. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that carbon intensity, which measures CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, decreased by 3.4%, falling short of the 3.9% reduction goal. This also indicates that China’s aim of reducing carbon emissions by 18% from 2020 to 2025 is not on track.
Despite questions of whether China has peaked in carbon emissions ahead of its 2030 target, emissions have increased marginally compared to previous years. Analysts warn that achieving the pledge to cut carbon intensity by 65% compared to 2005 levels by 2030 is highly challenging. Lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta stated, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22% in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.”
China continues to be a major emitter of greenhouse gases but is also a significant player in renewable energy. The country plans to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060. Analysts initially believed decelerating growth and swift renewable energy installation might lead to a drop in emissions for 2024. However, determining a definite emissions peak will likely take several additional years of data.
The industrial sector’s growth is significantly impeding climate goal advancements, as the demand for energy is growing faster than the development of clean energy infrastructure. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst, emphasized that reforms are needed to allow the energy market to adapt while expanding clean energy resources. Overall energy consumption in 2024 rose by 4.3%, with coal contributing over half of this energy use.
Despite coal still dominating energy production, the significant rise in renewable energy indicates a potential shift. Analysts believe that once all new electricity demands are fulfilled by renewables, coal usage will decline in absolute terms. Upcoming announcements regarding a new Five-Year Plan from Beijing are expected to provide updated emissions and energy targets for 2026 to 2030.
China also missed the February deadline to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Despite this, UN officials anticipate the majority of these submissions will occur later this year, potentially outlining updated goals and strategies through 2035.
In summary, China’s emissions increased slightly in 2024, missing key climate goals tied to its commitments under the Paris Agreement. The country faces significant challenges in aligning industrial growth with sustainable energy goals. Although renewable energy capacities are advancing, reliance on coal generation remains. Beijing’s forthcoming Five-Year Plan and updated NDCs will be crucial for clarifying future commitments and targets.
Original Source: www.france24.com
