Turkmenistan is set to begin natural gas shipments to Turkey through a swap arrangement involving Iran. The flow is expected to start on March 1, 2025, with an initial volume of 2 billion cubic meters discussed. Turkey aims to use this to enhance its position as a gas hub for Europe, although the deal underscores Turkmenistan’s increasing reliance on Iran for gas exports.
Natural gas shipments from Turkmenistan to Turkey are anticipated to commence soon, following ongoing discussions and agreements. The recent news indicates a swap arrangement where Turkmenistan will send gas to Iran, which will, in turn, supply Turkey, as no direct pipeline exists between Turkmenistan and Turkey. This agreement was confirmed during a phone call between Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty head, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
On February 11, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced the deal between BOTAS and Turkmengaz, stating that the gas flow is expected to begin on March 1, 2025. The initial delivery volume has not been specified, but prior talks refer to 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) being considered. Turkey aims to use this deal to enhance its position as a natural gas hub for Europe.
Discussions surrounding this agreement have been ongoing for over two years, sparked by a meeting in December 2022 between the leaders of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan to explore options for a pipeline from Turkmenistan through Azerbaijan. While these discussions did not yield a pipeline agreement, they set the stage for alternative arrangements, including the recent swap deal with Iran.
Despite the current agreement, Turkey maintains its interest in constructing a pipeline that could eventually transport up to 15 bcm of Turkmen gas. In September 2024, Turkish Ambassador Ahmet Demirok expressed Turkey’s interest in acquiring 300 bcm of Turkmen gas over the next two decades. This agreement highlights Turkmenistan’s increasing reliance on Iran as a transit route for its gas exports.
Historically, Turkmenistan’s gas export routes have been limited, with pipelines primarily reaching Russia until 2024 when the agreement between the two countries ended. Following independence in 1991, Turkmenistan’s gas pipeline access changed, leading to the construction of pipelines to Iran in 1997 and 2010, allowing for limited gas export opportunities.
Questions remain about the condition and reliability of the aging pipelines that connect Turkmenistan to Iran, especially since gas shipments to Iran ceased in 2017 over a pricing dispute. Turkmenistan’s only significant current gas customer is China, which imports around 35 bcm annually. Turkmenistan is implementing swap agreements with Iran to supply gas to other nations, including Azerbaijan and Iraq, although the start dates for these arrangements remain uncertain.
Economic reliance on gas exports is significant for Turkmenistan, accounting for over 80% of revenue. However, the economic viability of swap deals with Turkey and Iraq is contingent on maintaining stable relations with Iran and the operational status of the pipelines. The geopolitical landscape remains complex, especially given Iran’s internal and regional challenges over the past decade.
The anticipated shipment of Turkmen natural gas to Turkey via an Iranian swap agreement marks a significant development in regional energy politics. Despite the economic opportunities for Turkmenistan, dependency on Iran introduces risks due to potential instability in relations and the condition of aging infrastructure. As Turkey strives to bolster its role as a gas hub for Europe, the future of these agreements and their execution will be critical to regional energy dynamics.
Original Source: timesca.com
