Post-Bashar al-Assad, Iraq is navigating changing dynamics with Syria under Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa. Iraq has cautiously shifted toward diplomatic engagement despite internal opposition from Iranian-affiliated factions. Opportunities for economic collaboration, including oil export routes and labor integration, exist, but they are complicated by ongoing security concerns and historical grievances. Building relationships and managing borders will be crucial for lasting stability.
In light of the shifting dynamics post-Bashar al-Assad’s fall in Syria, Iraqi officials are considering the importance of building a stronger relationship with their new neighbor. Following the emergence of Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is garnering international support, there’s an effort from Syria to reconnect with various regional powers. Although there’s progress, diplomatic efforts have faced bumps, particularly around the Arab Summit, where al-Sharaa’s attendance sparked debates.
Iraq’s stance on these developments appears to be somewhat divided. On one side, the official Iraqi government adopted a cautious approach initially, including closing border crossings. After some back and forth, Iraq’s leadership began to engage more directly with the new Syrian regime—most notably, a meeting between Iraq’s Prime Minister and al-Sharaa in Doha that ended with an invitation to Baghdad’s Arab Summit in May.
On the other front, groups in Iraq with ties to Iran openly disapprove of rekindling relations with Syria’s leadership. More than fifty members of parliament, many linked to the Shiite Coordination Framework, signed a letter rejecting al-Sharaa’s visit. Militias like those led by Qais al-Khazaali are threatening the prospect of diplomatic discussions, using social media to ramp up hostility against Syria. They’ve been busy peddling disinformation about al-Sharaa’s past to undermine his credibility and calls for normalization.
Tensions between Iraqi militias and certain Sunni groups involved with al-Sharaa continue to simmer, rooted in conflicts dating back to 2014. While Iraqi militias justified their intervention in Syria as a need to safeguard holy sites, the historical grievances with al-Assad’s government complicate matters significantly.
Historically, Iraq and Syria have had their share of grievances under Baathist control, yet economic connections used to weaken this animosity. At their peak, trade reached about four billion dollars, but the outbreak of the Arab Spring drastically shifted this reality. After 2011, Iran helped forge a closer partnership between the two nations, intertwining political interests while also fanning sectarian divides. Despite this, trade has continued in various sectors, although its volume has dropped from about 80% to a mere 5% in Iraqi markets recently, indicating lost opportunities.
The new political landscape presents an opportunity for Iraq to strengthen its economic ties with Syria again. High-profile delegations from Iraq visiting Syria signal this pragmatic pivot, and discussions about re-establishing the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline could potentially raise Iraq’s oil export capacity significantly. If Iraq can resume oil shipping via Syria, it stands to gain economically and also diversify its export channels.
The window is open for Iraq not just to contribute to Syria’s recovery, but to also stabilize its own economic footing. There’s talk about integrating Syrian labor into the Iraqi workforce, tapping into a valuable resource that could facilitate economic growth amid labor shortages in the private sector. However, before any of this can fully flourish, both countries need to address fundamental security issues, especially the threats posed by extremist groups along the porous border.
The border has seen a lot of violence and flow of foreign fighters over the years, and any future stability will require effective coordination. Cooperation between Iraq and the new Syrian government must prioritize securing the borders to prevent illicit activities that have long plagued the region. With ISIS remnants still presenting a risk, programs to monitor the border and improve security are crucial.
In summation, the Iraqi government stands at a crucial crossroads in its history, with the chance to foster a new relationship with Syria. Although non-state actors pose a threat to the possibility of normalization, it is pivotal that Baghdad establishes effective communication channels. Regular official visits and open dialogues with civil society could help both nations adapt more rapidly to their evolving realities. Not to mention, available resources and economic opportunities linking the two could foster sustainable development and create a new chapter in Iraqi-Syrian relations, setting a precedent for regional cooperation focusing on peace and stability.
The shifting political landscape following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria opens a window for Iraq to build diplomatic and economic bridges with its neighbor. While there are significant challenges posed by opposition factions within Iraq, the possibility of enhanced cooperation presents opportunities for mutual growth. A combination of high-level engagement, security collaboration, and economic partnerships, particularly through labor integration and managing border security, could redefine the future of Iraqi-Syrian relations. Success hinges on overcoming the entrenched hostility and fostering an environment of trust and dialogue between the two nations.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
