Portugal heads to the polls for a third election in three years with PM Luis Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance leading in the polls but expected to fall short of a majority, indicating continued government instability. Key issues are housing and immigration, while voter turnout may see a dip due to election fatigue. Health issues concerning Chega’s leader could also influence results.
Portugal is set for another general election on Sunday, a vote that many citizens believe won’t bring about a stable government. This marks the third election in as many years, a period characterized by a decade of frail political leadership. Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, leading the centre-right Democratic Alliance, is ahead in polls but is expected to fall short of a parliamentary majority, leaving uncertainty in its wake and reinforcing the trend of instability in Portuguese politics.
The election was sparked following Montenegro’s failure to secure confidence from parliament just a year into his government. This came about after the opposition raised questions surrounding the integrity of Montenegro’s family consulting firm, prompting a confidence vote that he himself initiated. Montenegro has denied any wrongdoing, and recent polls reveal the majority of voters seem to dismiss the opposition’s criticisms as politically motivated.
Polling stations will be operational from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time, with the first exit polls expected shortly after the close of voting. Key issues for this election include housing and immigration, underscored by a decade of fragile governance and past collapses of governments that did not finish their term. Voter sentiment so far indicates that while the Democratic Alliance might receive more votes than in the last election, a majority still appears out of reach.
Diogo Lima, a bank worker at 26 years old, expressed frustration with the repeated elections, saying, “We can’t have elections every year.” He believes the Democratic Alliance should govern even without a sizeable victory. In polls by Radio Renascenca, the AD is projected to lead with around 32% of the vote, whereas the long-time rival Socialist Party trails at approximately 26%.
Political analyst Antonio Costa Pinto noted that the new parliament will likely resemble the previous lineup, making it challenging to predict its longevity. Pinto emphasized that the fate of the government hinges on the international climate and the ability of the AD to negotiate with other political factions. He suggested that it remains unclear whether the AD will attempt to form a new minority government or collaborate in some form with the pro-business Liberal Initiative (IL), which had a relative position in the polling at fourth.
Despite some commonalities with the AD, the IL is polling significantly below what would be necessary for any coalition to achieve a majority in the 230-seat parliament, which requires at least 42% of the overall votes. Compounding the likelihood of low voter turnout is the pervasive sentiment of election fatigue felt among the populace.
The far-right Chega party, which Montenegro has explicitly refused to collaborate with, is predicted to come in third with around 18%. However, results could be affected by health issues facing its leader, Andre Ventura. He recently was hospitalized twice due to an esophageal spasm but made an unexpected appearance at a party event to rally support just prior to the election.
As Portugal stands on the brink of yet another election, the potential for a stable government remains bleak. The Democratic Alliance, while leading in the polls, is not expected to secure a majority. With rising voter fatigue, key issues prioritizing housing and immigration, and internal party dynamics, this election could pave the way for more uncertainty in the country’s political landscape.
Original Source: www.tradingview.com
