The U.S. has escalated bombings in Yemen against the Houthi rebels, yet analysts say the efforts might be ineffective. Houthis continue targeting Israel and U.S. drones successfully, and some argue the airstrikes might even strengthen their alliance with Iran. As regional dynamics shift, the U.S. faces tough questions about strategy effectiveness and impending negotiations with Iran.
The U.S. has ramped up its bombing campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels since March 15, targeting over 1,000 locations in an operation labeled “Operation Rough Rider.” Aimed at curbing Houthi assaults on Red Sea shipping and increasing pressure on Iran amid nuclear talks, the campaign’s effectiveness remains disputed. Analysts underline that despite some infrastructural damage to the Houthis, the impact might be more superficial than significant, not fundamentally altering the group’s resolve or operational capability.
Colin Clarke, from the Soufan Group, noted that while the strikes have inflicted losses, the Houthis are not backing down. In fact, he pointed out that the group might even be benefiting, as they see a surge in recruitment and financing—”Any losses are likely short-term and temporary.” This sentiment is echoed by Jeremy Binnie from Janes, who emphasizes the ongoing threat posed by the Houthis, especially as they continue to strike targets, including U.S. drones and Israeli interests.
Binnie’s remarks highlighted a growing frustration: “It is arguably getting increasingly embarrassing for the United States every time the Houthis launch an attack on Israel or shoot down an MQ-9.” Compounding this embarrassment for the U.S. is the recent incident involving a U.S. Navy F/A-18 that fell off the USS Harry S. Truman while dodging a Houthi missile, further illustrating the rebels’ enduring threat.
Despite the U.S. Central Command’s assertions that the airstrikes are reducing the frequency and effectiveness of Houthi attacks—reporting a 69% drop in ballistic missile launches and a 55% decrease in drone attacks—skeptics question the true state of Houthi capabilities. On May 2, the Houthis managed to carry out strikes towards Israel, triggering Israeli defense responses and demonstrating their ongoing operational capacity.
Moreover, the bombing campaign might inadvertently be consolidating the Houthis’ ties with Iran. Designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., the Houthis are pivotal in Iran’s network of regional resistance fighters. Following the Gaza conflict that escalated in October 2023, the group has bolstered its alignment with Iran, claiming solidarity with Palestinians. While they appear to wield some influence, experts insist the Houthis still rely heavily on Iran for arms and strategic guidance.
The U.S. has shown its resolve through statements from officials like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who warned Iran: “You will pay the CONSEQUENCES at the time and place of our choosing.” Meanwhile, Clarke suggests that the U.S. attacks may have counterintuitively strengthened the Houthi-Iran relationship, postulating that this escalated collaboration could hinder progress in nuclear negotiations.
Despite U.S. efforts to weaken the Houthis with extensive bombing campaigns, analysts suggest that these strikes have been largely ineffective. Rather than diminishing the group’s capabilities, they may be strengthening their ties with Iran and solidifying their role in the regional conflict. The situation raises significant questions about the effectiveness of the U.S.’s military strategy in Yemen and the future of nuclear discussions with Iran.
Original Source: www.rferl.org
