Al-Shabaab has gained territory in Somalia, posing an increasing threat after a failed assassination attempt on President Mohamud. The group’s resurgence follows the government’s military setbacks and potential reductions in international support. Analysts note that internal political struggles may also play a role in the jihadists’ recent advances.
The Al-Shabaab jihadist militia in Somalia is exhibiting signs of resurgence, particularly after recent gains in strategic areas and a failed assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Despite being on the defensive in previous years due to military pressure from the Somali government and international partners, there are growing concerns as these gains are now being reversed. According to reports, Al-Shabaab has seized key locations in both Middle and Lower Shabelle, regions adjacent to Mogadishu, indicating an increased operational presence within the capital.
On March 18, a bomb attack targeting President Mohamud’s convoy highlighted the ongoing threat posed by Al-Shabaab. Recently, the group has taken control of Masaajid Cali Gaduud, a significant town in Middle Shabelle, shortly after the president’s visit aimed at curbing their influence. Local resident Abdulkadi Hassan reported, “There were explosions and heavy gunfire this morning,” noting the retreat of Somali government forces and local militias in the face of Al-Shabaab’s advance.
Analyst Matt Bryden indicates that these developments reflect a broader pattern where government forces are losing vital positions, including key bridges. He describes the situation as indicative of an army in disarray. The Somali government’s reliance on clan militias, police, and prison guards highlights the urgency of the crisis. Citizens in Mogadishu are becoming increasingly concerned about the government’s ability to maintain security against potential encirclement by Al-Shabaab.
President Mohamud has remained resolute, establishing a temporary command in Cadale and affirming, “The war will not stop, we are not coming back from where we are now, and we will attain the victory we are seeking.” However, the Somali government faces significant risks related to dwindling international support, impacting its military efforts.
Despite the potential for reduced aid, experts suggest that Al-Shabaab remains far from overtaking Mogadishu. Analyst Omar Mahmood points out that the government’s focus on political issues has allowed Al-Shabaab to exploit local grievances. He states, “The country is not united right now… and part of this has to do with politics around the constitution and electoral plans.” He views the current conflict as a long-standing war closer to a stalemate rather than Al-Shabaab’s imminent victory.
Overall, the resurgence of Al-Shabaab presents a complex challenge for the Somali government, compounded by political distractions and wavering international support. The situation demands urgent attention to ensure stability and security in the region.
The resurgence of Al-Shabaab in Somalia poses a renewed threat to the stability of the region. With recent territorial gains in crucial areas near Mogadishu, alongside potential cuts in international support, the government faces significant challenges. While there are concerns about the capabilities of the Somali forces, analysts emphasize that political distractions may be contributing to Al-Shabaab’s advances, suggesting a complex interplay between military and political factors in the ongoing conflict.
Original Source: www.france24.com
