China’s emissions target for 2024 was not met, with carbon intensity decreasing only 3.4% compared to a planned 3.9%. This shortfall raises concerns about its broader goals of peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Despite advancements in renewable energy, the country faces challenges in reducing coal reliance for energy production.
China’s recent failure to meet its emissions target has stirred concerns regarding its future in achieving carbon neutrality, a critical goal for global climate initiatives. In 2024, China’s carbon intensity, which measures carbon emissions relative to GDP, fell by 3.4 percent, falling short of the 3.9 percent goal set by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The country is lagging in its objective to reduce carbon intensity by 18 percent from 2020 to 2025 as outlined in the latest five-year plan. Under President Xi Jinping’s dual targets, China aims to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, China, as the world’s largest emitter (30 percent of global emissions), is under scrutiny for its contradictory standing as a leading renewable energy investor.
China’s ability to meet emissions targets is crucial for international efforts to maintain temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal set by the UN to mitigate severe climate effects. Recent global temperature records, with 2024 marking a breach of this threshold, cast doubts on achieving this target.
Carbon intensity, though only one of Beijing’s benchmarks, indicates how decarbonization processes are evolving in China’s economy. Muyi Yang, an energy analyst at Ember, noted, “Even though the economy continued to grow, the reduction in emissions relative to that growth wasn’t as rapid as intended.”
Despite a 5 percent economic growth rate in 2024, electricity demand surged by 6.8 percent year-on-year, coupled with a 0.8 percent rise in carbon emissions. Record heatwaves have exacerbated challenges in emission reduction efforts, impacting hydropower and forcing a reliance on coal.
Nonetheless, advancements in renewable energy have been significant. According to Eric Fishman from the Lantau Group, China achieved 14.5 percent of its total energy demand from wind and solar energy, alongside 13.4 percent from hydropower last year. Remarkably, around 75 percent of the new energy demand was fulfilled through renewables.
Government initiatives have significantly encouraged this growth, rooted in Xi Jinping Thought, which promotes ecological civilization. In 2021, Xi insisted that energy-intensive and high-emission projects must be eliminated, coinciding with the launch of the world’s largest emissions trading market to incentivize reduced emissions.
Recent shifts in focus to more advanced manufacturing aim to transition from conventional lower-value products to environmentally sustainable options such as solar panels and electric vehicles. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) plans to announce its next carbon emissions targets in line with the 2026-2030 five-year plan in the upcoming year.
Experts voice a cautious outlook on long-term coal reliance and structural changes needed in China’s energy framework to meet carbon neutrality goals. Yao Zhe from Greenpeace East Asia articulated that, although peak carbon emissions appear achievable pre-2030, abandoning coal will require significant reforms, which may be postponed beyond 2035.
China’s missed emissions target presents a challenge to both its domestic policies and global climate goals. While there are advancements in renewable energy, the reliance on coal and industrial growth raises concerns. The upcoming five-year plan and renewed carbon targets will be pivotal in steering China’s future towards its sustainability commitments amidst a complex economic landscape.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
