China’s carbon intensity fell by 3.4% in 2024, missing the government’s 3.9% target. This raises concerns about China’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and its impact on global climate efforts. Despite record growth in renewable energy, emissions have increased due to rising electricity demands. Comprehensive structural changes are necessary for long-term sustainability, influenced by upcoming carbon emissions targets.
In 2024, China experienced a 3.4% reduction in carbon intensity, which unfortunately fell short of the government’s goal of 3.9%. This missed target raises doubts concerning China’s commitments to achieving carbon neutrality, critical to global climate goals. Carbon intensity, a ratio of carbon emissions to GDP, remains a vital indicator of the country’s progress in transitioning to a greener economy, as stated by the National Bureau of Statistics.
China aims for an 18% reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025 as outlined in the Chinese Communist Party’s five-year plan. President Xi Jinping has pledged that emissions will peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality will be realized by 2060. However, meeting these goals is challenging due to China’s current status as the leading global emitter, accounting for approximately 30% of worldwide emissions despite its advancements in renewable energy.
The international community is concerned as China’s performance directly impacts efforts to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a critical threshold established by the United Nations. Alarmingly, 2024 marked the first year where global temperatures surpassed this limit, casting doubt on future climate stability.
As noted by Muyi Yang from Ember, the slow reduction of emissions relative to GDP growth indicates deficiencies in the decarbonization process. Although China’s economy grew by 5% in 2024, electricity demand surged by 6.8%, contributing to a 0.8% rise in carbon emissions. Industrial growth, vital for recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, has exacerbated energy demands, complicating carbon reduction efforts.
Record heatwaves have also disrupted energy production, particularly affecting hydropower and necessitating a pivot to coal-fired energy sources. Nonetheless, significant progress in renewable energy production has been reported, with wind and solar accounting for 14.5% of energy demand and hydropower contributing 13.4% in the previous year. Notably, renewable sources met a substantial portion of the incremental energy growth.
Government initiatives, prominently supported by Xi Jinping’s ecological policies, drive the growth in renewables. The Chinese government’s policies are shifting focus from low-value manufacturing to high-quality, green-driven sectors, promoting electric vehicles and renewable technologies.
The forthcoming carbon emissions targets for 2026-2030, to be released alongside the new five-year plan, will significantly influence future public and private sector directions. Analysts highlight that achieving carbon neutrality will necessitate comprehensive structural changes in the energy sector and broader economy, with a timeline that may extend well after 2035.
China’s recent failure to meet its carbon intensity targets raises significant concerns about its future emissions trajectory and global climate efforts. Despite advancements in renewable energy, the country continues to struggle with emissions growth amid rising electricity demands linked to economic recovery. As China moves towards its ambitious goals of peak emissions and carbon neutrality, substantial structural changes will be crucial for sustainable development. The upcoming carbon emissions targets and policies will shape the nation’s environmental strategies in the coming years.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
