Ethiopia is in a dire state, facing ethnic tensions, economic hardship, and political instability. Despite a peace agreement in Tigray, divisions remain, with growing resistance from the Amhara and Oromo ethnic groups against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. His quest for coastal access and aggressive foreign policy may further destabilize the region, prompting fears of imminent conflict. Without diplomatic solutions, Ethiopia risks plunging into chaos, raising humanitarian concerns.
Ethiopia faces a significant political and societal crisis characterized by ethnic tensions, substantial economic challenges, and increasing instability. The civil war in Tigray (2020–2022) has left the nation fragile, and while the Pretoria peace agreement provided temporary respite, deep-seated divisions, especially between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), persist.
The TPLF is now fragmented; some factions aim to collaborate with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, while others firmly oppose him. Abiy’s attempt to manipulate these internal conflicts for power consolidation risks reigniting armed clashes in Tigray, further destabilizing Ethiopia.
As tensions rise, the Amhara ethnic group has grown increasingly hostile towards Abiy Ahmed. During the Tigray conflict, Amhara militias supported the government, hoping their contributions would be acknowledged post-war. However, many Amharas feel betrayed as the government disarms their forces, and unresolved territorial disputes, particularly regarding Wolkait and Raya, escalate tensions.
Since 2023, a new resistance movement in Amhara has emerged, with armed groups frequently clashing with Ethiopian forces. Despite the government declaring a state of emergency and deploying troops, the unrest continues. Many Amhara elites accuse Abiy of fostering an Oromo hegemony, disregarding the Amhara’s concerns.
Interestingly, Abiy is also encountering resistance from his own Oromo community. Initially optimistic about having an Oromo prime minister, many are now disillusioned. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has engaged in a guerrilla campaign against the government, asserting Abiy’s administration neglects Oromo interests and favors a centralized rule contrary to Ethiopia’s federal model.
Ethiopia is concurrently grappling with severe economic issues, including high inflation and rising unemployment, further exacerbated by past conflicts. Prices for essential goods have soared, pushing many families into poverty, while youth unemployment drives many towards armed groups or emigration. To avert a financial catastrophe, the government must undertake challenging economic reforms amidst significant debt obligations.
Ethiopia’s unfolding crises could lead the country towards failure, largely attributed to Abiy’s ineffective governance. Once viewed as a beacon of hope, Abiy’s leadership is now perceived as increasingly militaristic. To divert attention from domestic failures, he has adopted a more aggressive foreign policy, notably seeking access to the sea as a means of political mobilization.
Historically, Ethiopia’s quest for coastal access is not new. Previous leaders like Emperor Haile Selassie and dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam pursued similar agendas under imperialistic justifications. Abiy Ahmed echoes this rhetoric, characterizing Ethiopia as a historically coastal state, yet he neglects diplomatic pathways, intensifying regional instability.
On January 1, 2024, Ethiopia entered a contentious Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, offering a 50-year lease for strategic access to the Red Sea in exchange for potential diplomatic recognition. This deal incited reactions from Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory, threatening diplomatic relations and prompting fears of escalating regional tensions.
Ethiopia’s military buildup along its border with Eritrea adds another layer of complexity. Historical animosities linger since the border war from 1998 to 2000, and recent conflicts during the Tigray war have rekindled hostility. Open conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea could destabilize neighboring countries like Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan, resulting in widespread violence.
The Horn of Africa is already precarious, and an armed conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea could spiral out of control, significantly impacting regional stability and drawing international actors into the fray, each with competing interests. The humanitarian toll would be catastrophic, potentially displacing millions and exacerbating poverty and hunger in an already vulnerable region.
Ultimately, Prime Minister Abiy must seek diplomatic solutions to avoid further conflict escalation. Without effective strategies for de-escalation, the Horn of Africa risks descending into further chaos with severe consequences for regional and global stability.
Ethiopia is grappling with deep-rooted ethnic tensions, economic crises, and political instability under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. The precarious situation is exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in Tigray and Oromia, as well as rising resistance from the Amhara community, which undermines his power. Additionally, Ethiopia’s controversial foreign policy decisions could drive regional instability further. Without effective diplomatic engagement, the risk of broader conflict remains high, threatening to plunge the Horn of Africa into a severe crisis.
Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
