Professor Jok Madut Jok warns that South Sudan’s 2018 peace deal is at risk of collapse, warning of potential return to civil war due to escalating tensions between political leaders. He highlights the dire economic situation, rising communal violence, and calls for national unity and accountability among citizens. The choices made now could determine the country’s immediate future and stability.
Professor Jok Madut Jok, a leading political analyst and anthropology professor at Syracuse University, has cautioned that South Sudan is on the brink of renewed civil war as the 2018 peace agreement deteriorates. During a Radio Tamazuj interview, he detailed intensifying hostilities between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, emphasizing that the SPLM/A-IO, led by Machar, faces a pivotal decision regarding their political stance.
Prof. Jok declared, “The peace agreement is collapsing. The SPLA-IO must decide whether to swallow their pride or go back to the bush to fight.” He highlighted Machar’s precarious situation, noting that he remains effectively under house arrest with a fragmented leadership. Government positions designated for other parties have been occupied, including the governorship of Jonglei. This suggests President Kiir’s declining commitment to the peace agreement, according to Prof. Jok.
If the situation continues unchecked, Prof. Jok warned, the peace accord will entirely collapse. “The SPLM-IG will consolidate power, exclude others, and the agreement will no longer hold,” he stated. The opposition will have to choose between acceptance or armed resistance, jeopardizing the peace agreement’s future.
He also addressed the rise of lethal communal conflicts, which he believes stem from political disputes in Juba. Jok noted increasing violence, particularly between ethnic groups such as the Nuer and Jieng. He stated, “Conflicts are increasing and becoming more lethal,” while criticizing the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) for failing to address root causes of violence.
Economically, South Sudan is facing dire conditions, with failed harvests and disrupted trade hindering recovery. Prof. Jok remarked, “If South Sudan returns to full-scale war, it will be a disaster,” criticizing leaders for prioritizing power retention over citizens’ welfare. He condemned the deployment of Uganda’s troops as “an insult to South Sudanese,” asserting it serves governing elites rather than national interests.
Moreover, Prof. Jok highlighted the disparity in financial support, noting the government’s tendency to pay foreign troops while neglecting its own soldiers for over a year. This practice breeds resentment within the national army and weakens national unity.
He called for South Sudanese unity and accountability regarding governance. “What happens in Upper Nile affects all of us,” he stated, urging collective action against injustices. He expressed concern that a dictatorial SPLM-IG could prompt international disengagement, hindering the nation’s prospects for stabilization.
Final words from Prof. Jok underscore the urgency of the current political climate: “South Sudan is at a crossroads. The choices made in the coming weeks and months will determine whether the country descends into further chaos or finds a path to lasting peace.”
The potential collapse of South Sudan’s 2018 peace deal, as outlined by Professor Jok Madut Jok, highlights critical tensions and concerns for the nation’s future. With the SPLM/A-IO at a crossroads, a return to conflict looms if leaders fail to pursue accountability and national unity. The rising violence linked to political struggles and the deteriorating economic landscape only intensify the urgency for effective governance and support from the international community. Overall, strategic choices in this fragile period will be vital for South Sudan’s path forward.
Original Source: www.radiotamazuj.org
