Standard Bank forecasts a 5.4% GDP growth for Ghana in 2025, driven by a robust mining sector. The economy is recovering from a 2.9% growth in 2023 to an anticipated 5.8% in 2024. While challenges persist in manufacturing, real estate, and agriculture, confidence remains in continuous growth. Currency depreciation against the US dollar is anticipated, raising concerns about foreign exchange management.
Standard Bank anticipates that Ghana’s GDP will grow by 5.4% year-on-year by 2025, as shared by Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Research at Standard Bank Group. This growth marks a rebound from 2.9% in 2023 to an expected 5.8% in 2024, indicating a positive trend since 2021, largely driven by a strong performance in the mining sector.
Qureishi emphasized the mining sector’s crucial role in Ghana’s economic recovery, specifically citing gold production as a leading factor. He mentioned the resurgence of mining activities, including revitalization of underperforming mines like Obuasi and the expected initiation of a lithium facility by 2026/2027, as significant contributors to economic growth.
However, he pointed out challenges in other sectors including manufacturing and real estate which face ongoing obstacles. Additionally, agricultural productivity was adversely affected due to a dry spell in Northern Ghana, which restrained growth in that area.
Despite these hurdles, Qureishi expressed confidence in the overall economic direction of Ghana. He noted that the revival of mining operations and potential growth beyond expectations in 2026 is promising, while also acknowledging the necessity to tackle issues like energy sector arrears and fiscal policy inconsistencies to maintain growth.
Regarding currency fluctuations, he projected that the Ghanaian cedi could depreciate against the US dollar, potentially reaching GH¢16.4 per dollar. This is due to structural challenges in foreign exchange flows, particularly the dependency on the Bank of Ghana for managing foreign currency rather than the interbank market. Qureishi underscored the importance of sound economic management amid these concerns, while maintaining an optimistic outlook for Ghana’s economic stability.
In conclusion, Standard Bank’s projection of 5.4% GDP growth for Ghana in 2025 highlights optimism driven by the mining sector, particularly in gold production. Despite challenges in other economic areas and potential currency depreciation, the revival of mining operations offers a pathway for recovery. To sustain this growth, addressing fiscal imbalances and energy sector issues is imperative. Overall, maintaining macroeconomic stability will be crucial for the future health of Ghana’s economy.
Original Source: www.ghanabusinessnews.com
