Professor Jok Madut Jok warns that South Sudan is nearing another civil war as the 2018 peace deal falters, primarily due to rising tensions between President Kiir and First Vice President Machar. He points out the SPLM/A-IO’s dilemma, rampant communal conflicts, economic strife, reliance on foreign troops, and calls for unity and accountability among citizens as essential for preventing further chaos.
South Sudan is facing a potential resurgence of civil war as the 2018 peace agreement unravels, warns Professor Jok Madut Jok, a political analyst and professor at Syracuse University. In an interview, he expressed concern over increasing tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, emphasizing that Machar’s opposition group, SPLM/A-IO, must choose between political acceptance or armed conflict.
Prof. Jok stated, “The peace agreement is collapsing,” highlighting SPLM/A-IO’s crucial choice: to compromise or revert to fighting. He described Machar’s precarious situation, citing his de facto house arrest and disorganization among his commanders. The ruling SPLM-IG has seized governmental positions, indicating President Kiir’s diminishing commitment to the peace agreement.
If the situation does not improve, the peace agreement risks total failure. Prof. Jok noted, “The SPLM-IG will consolidate power, exclude others,” leading to a dire choice for opposition factions of either submission or rebellion. He reiterated that the agreement’s future is precarious.
Additionally, Prof. Jok highlighted a worrying rise in communal conflicts tied to political struggles in Juba. He stated the increasing intensity of conflicts such as those between the Nuer and Dinka communities, contending that peace remains unreachable for many citizens despite the ceasefire achieved between SPLA-IO and SSPDF.
He painted a bleak picture of South Sudan’s economy, pointing to failed harvests and disrupted trade, chiefly resulting from the broader conflicts in the region. The focus of political leaders is more on maintaining power than addressing humanitarian crises, suggesting that a return to war would be catastrophic.
He criticized the deployment of Ugandan People’s Defence Forces in South Sudan, calling it disrespectful to South Sudanese sovereignty. Calling for national unity, Prof. Jok highlighted resentment among soldiers due to non-payment over the past year, suggesting that prioritizing foreign troops over national forces erodes the country’s stability and unity.
Professor Jok called for South Sudanese citizens to unite against their leaders, advocating for accountability and human rights respect. Concerned about the international community potentially disengaging if undemocratic power consolidation continues, he stressed the urgency for transitional leadership and national survival. He concluded that South Sudan stands at a pivotal moment: “The choices made in the coming weeks… will determine whether the country descends into further chaos or finds a path to lasting peace.”
In summary, Professor Jok Madut Jok alerts that South Sudan is on the brink of renewed civil conflict due to the disintegrating 2018 peace agreement. Current tensions between political leaders, escalating communal violence, economic difficulties, and reliance on foreign troops culminate in a critical juncture for the nation. The necessity for accountability and unity among citizens is vital for reversing these trends and seeking peace.
Original Source: www.radiotamazuj.org
