A power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Ethiopia has increased the risk of conflict with Eritrea, exacerbating regional tensions. Dissident factions have taken control of key areas, prompting fears of renewed war. Experts suggest that military mobilization indicates imminent conflict, which could have devastating humanitarian consequences.
Renewed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region presents a significant risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. A power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) escalated last week, as dissident factions seized control of key locations in Tigray, including the main radio station in Mekelle and Adigrat. Getachew Reda, Tigray’s interim leader, accused rival TPLF factions of collaborating with Eritrea to reignite tensions.
Getachew replaced Debretsion Gebremichael, the TPLF chairman, following a 2022 peace agreement that ended a deadly civil war. Eritrea, having been excluded from the agreement, aims to eliminate the TPLF entirely, highlighting a long-standing animosity rooted in their shared history of conflict. Eritrean troops continue to occupy disputed border regions, raising concerns about a potential military invasion by Ethiopia.
Certain TPLF factions remain frustrated with the Pretoria agreement, feeling marginalized while others were integrated into the interim government. The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), previously neutral, shifted support to Debretsion last month and may have aligned interests regarding control of illegal gold mining.
The ongoing power tensions have prompted fears that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed might pursue military options for access to the Red Sea, especially amid negotiations with Somalia. Experts have indicated that the military mobilization indicates a pending conflict, potentially dragging in neighboring Sudan, with devastating humanitarian consequences.
The previous civil war resulted in approximately 600,000 deaths, leaving many displaced in camps. Ethiopia, reliant on U.S. humanitarian aid, faces challenges in providing for around 2.4 million people in Tigray.
Other significant developments in Africa include Rwanda-backed M23 rebels withdrawing from peace talks in Congo, a U.S. expulsion of South Africa’s ambassador, and the environmental crisis in Zambia caused by a Chinese mining spill contaminating a vital river.
The Tigray power struggle poses a substantial risk of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, driven by internal dissent within the TPLF and historical grievances. The potential for escalation into a broader regional conflict remains high, with military movements indicating serious tensions. Humanitarian implications are dire, with many still reeling from the last civil war’s impact. Immediate diplomatic solutions are needed to avert further violence.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
