Civilians are fleeing Tigray amidst fears of renewed conflict as Ethiopian and Eritrean forces intensify military buildup along the border. Key factors include Ethiopia’s quest for Red Sea access, internal power struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and failures of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. The situation poses risks of escalation into broader conflict, with regional and external repercussions looming.
Civilians are fleeing Ethiopia’s Tigray region due to escalating tensions as Eritrean and Ethiopian forces increase their military presence along the border. This situation stems from Ethiopia’s desire for Red Sea access and political struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), pushing both countries toward a potential full-scale conflict. The failure to implement the provisions of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the Tigray War, has exacerbated divisions between the two nations, intensifying regional instability.
The resurgence of conflict is rooted in rival factions within the TPLF, particularly between the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) and the TPLF loyal to leader Debretsion Gebremichael. Eritrea’s support for TIRA has deepened this rift, especially following the Pretoria Agreement, which was intended to stabilize power dynamics in Tigray. The growing internal strife escalated into violent clashes, forcing TIRA leader Getachew Reda to flee following confrontations, resulting in shifts in power dynamics across strategic towns in Tigray.
Tensions peaked during negotiations in March, leading to the appointment of General Tadesse Werede as the new TIRA leader. However, the environment remains volatile, with reports of troops remobilizing and calls for former fighters to rejoin the TPLF. Significant troop movements by Ethiopian and Eritrean military forces around the border highlight the urgent risk of escalating conflict. The TPLF has pursued parallel governance structures in Tigray amid strained relations over political recognition and territorial disputes.
Ethiopia and Eritrea’s diplomatic relations have deteriorated, exacerbated by accusations of each backing opposing groups. Ethiopia’s assertiveness regarding Red Sea access, justified as a historical right, is contested by Eritrea, which perceives such moves as threats. Ethiopia’s signed agreement with Somaliland for sea access signals an effort to regain economic influence previously held in Eritrea’s ports. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s military is engaged elsewhere, complicating the prospect of a full-scale war with Eritrea as it also has to contend with domestic instability.
The implications of renewed tensions in Tigray could extend beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea, with possible spillover effects in Sudan, where both nations support rival factions in a civil conflict. Additionally, regional actors like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, and Russia are heavily invested in this destabilization. The potential for jihadist groups to exploit the chaos to expand their influence further raises the stakes, signaling a precarious future for the Horn of Africa at large.
Amid evolving geopolitical interests and domestic challenges, Ethiopia and Eritrea’s conflict appears to be a significant flashpoint for broader regional instability. Continued escalation risks inviting external powers to directly intervene in the conflict, creating a dangerous cycle that could have dire implications for peace in the region and an expanded humanitarian crisis.
The renewed tensions in Tigray are indicative of a broader geopolitical struggle involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, and external forces. Key issues include internal power struggles within the TPLF, failed peace agreements, and competing ambitions for Red Sea access. As the situation escalates, the risk of a full-scale conflict looms, threatening regional stability and increasing the potential for a humanitarian crisis.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
