Recent escalations in Tigray have led to civilian displacement as Eritrean and Ethiopian forces build military presence along their border. Power struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, coupled with unresolved issues from the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, threaten to ignite a broader regional conflict. Ethiopia’s internal turbulence and Eritrea’s strategic responses are critical to understanding this emerging crisis in the Horn of Africa.
Civilians are fleeing Ethiopia’s northernmost state of Tigray due to fears of renewed conflict as military tensions rise between Eritrean and Ethiopian forces near the border. The situation is exacerbated by Ethiopia’s desire for Red Sea access and an internal power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The faltering implementation of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement has heightened divisions, pushing both nations closer to potential full-scale conflict.
The escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are rooted in a significant rift among political elites and alignments within the TPLF. Rival factions, including President Getachew Reda of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) and TPLF Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, have seen Eritrea accused of supporting the administration aligned with the federal government. This division was aggravated by the appointment of Reda under the Pretoria Agreement, which has not succeeded in stabilizing the region.
Recent developments have included violent clashes on March 11, prompting Reda to flee to Addis Ababa. TPLF factions, loyal to Debretsion, have engaged in conflicts throughout Tigray, capturing major towns and weakening TIRA’s position. Military mobilizations have been observed along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, signaling an imminent confrontation.
Discussions in Addis Ababa on March 17 resulted in the appointment of General Tadesse Werede as the new TIRA leader, yet tensions persist, with breakaway factions asserting control in eastern Tigray. The Ethiopian federal army and Eritrean forces have increased troop movements, indicating a potential rise in hostilities amid renewed factional conflict within Tigray.
Since August, the TPLF has solidified parallel governance in Tigray while urging TIRA officials to resign. The Pretoria Agreement has fallen short, failing to implement disarmament provisions and recognize the TPLF’s political status amid ongoing territorial disputes. Eritrea’s discontent with the agreement has intensified, as it supports factions opposed to the Ethiopian federal government.
Amid worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea relations, mutual accusations of supporting opposition groups have escalated. Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access, which Prime Minister Ahmed claims as a historical right, contradicts Eritrea’s sovereignty interests. Ethiopia forged a significant maritime deal in 2024 with Somaliland to counter Eritrea’s influence, intensifying tensions regarding access to strategic ports.
Ethiopia’s military is currently stretched thin, engaged primarily against Fano ethno-nationalist militants, making the possibility of a full-scale war with Eritrea less likely. Should conflict arise, it risks igniting ethnic violence across Ethiopia amidst its multitude of ethnic factions, particularly given the Fano’s recent armed rebellion.
The instability in Tigray has regional implications, with both Eritrea and Ethiopia involved in Sudan’s civil war, supporting opposing factions on the ground. The involvement of Tigrayan forces has raised concerns for the Ethiopian government, especially in Western Tigray, a disputed border area with Sudan.
Geopolitical interests in the region have stirred responses from external powers, as Saudi Arabia monitors Ethiopian expansions along the Red Sea and the UAE has supported Ethiopia in those pursuits, potentially complicating relationships, particularly with Egypt. Additionally, Iran and Russia are attempting to leverage the situation to weaken Western-aligned governments, while jihadist groups could benefit from the ongoing conflict and unrest.
In conclusion, the renewed tensions in Tigray pose a significant risk of escalating into a wider conflict due to exacerbated military posturing, internal political strife, and fragile regional relations. The failure of the Pretoria Agreement to stabilize the situation further complicates prospects for peaceful resolution, as Ethiopia’s regional ambitions collide with Eritrea’s sovereignty. The geopolitical implications extend beyond these countries, attracting the attention of external powers and presenting risks for increased instability throughout the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
