A recent CAS study projects that China’s rare earth share, currently at 62%, may fall to 28% by 2035, due to new mining competitors in various regions. A further decline to 23% is predicted by 2040, indicating fundamental shifts in the industry. Greenland and South America are emerging as significant challengers to China’s stronghold in rare earth production.
A recent study published in the journal Chinese Rare Earths forecasts that China’s current dominance in the rare earth market could decline significantly within the next decade. Currently, China holds approximately 62% of the global share of rare earth materials; however, projections indicate this share may drop to 28% by 2035 due to emerging competitors in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland.
Researchers modeled scenarios indicating a further decline to 23% by 2040. This modeling suggests that China could lose its historical dominant position in the rare earth sector as new mining opportunities arise globally. The study points to ‘fundamental shifts’ in the market dynamics, driven by the emergence of new sources of rare earth materials.
Particularly at risk are China’s heavy rare earth resources, especially those concentrated in its southern region known for ion-adsorption clays. Greenland’s Kvanefjeld project and various initiatives in South America could potentially disrupt this longstanding stronghold. The study was conducted by the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, which is a major production center for rare earth metals.
The study indicates a significant shift in the rare earth market, projecting a decline in China’s share from 62% to 28% by 2035 due to emerging global competitors. This changing landscape suggests that new mining opportunities in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland could reshape the industry and challenge China’s dominance in rare earth production.
Original Source: www.scmp.com
