Violence is on the rise in South Sudan as tensions between the Nuer and Dinka communities escalate. Recent clashes have led to significant casualties, and the international community’s response has been mostly rhetorical. Community demobilization and government accountability are crucial for preventing a return to civil war.
Recent escalations in violence in South Sudan, particularly in Upper Nile State, have raised alarms about a potential return to civil war. The ongoing tensions have historical roots tied to conflicts primarily between the Nuer and Dinka communities, which date back to the split of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in 1991. As of March 2025, violent clashes between the White Army militia and the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces have resulted in significant casualties, inflamed by external military involvement from Uganda.
In March 2025, the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer community, attacked South Sudan’s army units in Nasir County, leading to intense fighting and numerous fatalities. The militia claimed to act defensively, while the government’s response included airstrikes and arrests of opposition leaders, exacerbating existing tensions. This surge in violence reflects past conflict patterns but appears to be spiraling further and faster than previous incidents.
The historical divisions stem from the SPLM’s fracture, with Riek Machar leading a Nuer-dominated faction known as SPLM-Nasir. This faction emerged during the 1990s when the White Army originated to defend the Nuer community. The White Army’s independent nature complicates the current dynamics, as it does not operate under direct political control, stressing the need for accurate perceptions of its motives beyond mere opposition affiliation.
The current conflict differs from the earlier civil war that erupted in 2013, as recent attacks by the White Army seem to result from a series of provocations rather than a centralized directive. Tensions peaked following an altercation where White Army forces attacked government soldiers, leading to retaliatory violence. The situation worsened when government troops faced embarrassing setbacks against the militia, prompting severe crackdowns and the subsequent detention of opposition leaders.
Preventing a return to civil war necessitates open dialogue and community demobilization efforts. The government must cease arbitrary arrests and attacks on civilians, particularly in flashpoints like Nasir County. Engaging influential community figures from the White Army in peace negotiations could help mitigate conflicts, especially with the rainy season approaching, which would limit large-scale conflict operations.
Meanwhile, the international community’s response has been largely limited to verbal condemnations of violence, lacking effective action to address the underlying issues. The United Nations mission has called for restraint but has failed to fully grasp the complexities of the White Army’s motivations. A strong international stance on the need for de-escalation and genuine political dialogue addressing grievances is essential in the face of rising tensions.
Escalating violence in South Sudan poses grave concerns for stability, particularly among the Nuer and Dinka communities. Current disputes, fueled by government responses and historical tensions, threaten to unravel twelve years of progress. To sidestep a return to civil war, it is essential to foster dialogue and engage local leaders, while the international community must play a proactive role in promoting peace and addressing root causes of conflict.
Original Source: eastleighvoice.co.ke
