Israel’s intelligence suggests Lebanon is striving for sovereignty as Hezbollah’s influence wanes due to war fatigue, Iranian losses, and Syrian regime change. The ceasefire remains intact, yet Hezbollah’s identity tied to armed resistance complicates potential disarmament efforts. U.S.-backed negotiations could face pushback, maintaining the tenuous status quo for now.
Israel’s elite signals intelligence unit, Unit 8200, intercepted critical conversations among Hezbollah leaders, revealing their trauma and decreased morale following significant confrontations with Israel, particularly after the death of Nasrallah. Orna Mizrahi, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, indicates that Lebanon’s government is actively seeking to regain sovereignty, marking a notable shift in nearly two decades of governance under Hezbollah’s influence.
Several factors contribute to this change. First, widespread war fatigue has affected many Lebanese citizens, including Hezbollah’s traditional Shiite base, as conflicts have resulted in massive destruction and displacement. Second, Iran’s loss of its most powerful proxy has diminished its power in Lebanon and the region. Lastly, the shift in governance due to the Assad regime’s fall has deprived Hezbollah of vital logistical support.
Ahmad al-Shara now leads Syria, bringing an anti-Hezbollah sentiment, heightened surveillance, and blocked Iranian arms supply routes, further isolating the group. Following military setbacks, Hezbollah accepted a US-brokered ceasefire, allowing Israel to maintain military presence at key border locations and facilitating the return of displaced residents.
Newly elected Lebanese President General Joseph Aoun, who has ties to the U.S., has weakened Hezbollah’s political power, reducing the group’s veto authority. Israel has engaged covertly with various Lebanese factions, particularly the influential Maronites, mirroring past alliances aimed at countering Hezbollah’s power. Iraq’s recent leadership change is reminiscent of past Israel-Maronite cooperation during efforts against the PLO.
While Hezbollah’s defeat has not altered its core ambitions, it continues to demonstrate its presence, as evidenced by the substantial attendance at Nasrallah’s funeral. Analysts contend that disarmament seems unlikely, as Hezbollah’s identity is closely linked to its armed resistance. Current estimates of its fighting force stand at approximately 50,000 members, illustrating its capacity to threaten stability in Lebanon.
Doron suggests that while Hezbollah may present a facade of political moderation, threats to its interests could provoke renewed conflict. Israeli operations continue unabated, monitoring Hezbollah’s activities while remaining cautious of shifts in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration. Pressure to negotiate border disputes with Lebanon has been noted, but these discussions are fraught with potential upheaval from Hezbollah’s end given its intent to maintain power.
Mizrahi suggests that for the time being, Hezbollah will likely continue its approach of containment towards Israeli military operations while maintaining the ceasefire. Israeli intelligence anticipates this status quo will persist in the near future, with limited likelihood for further progression in diplomatic relations.
The analysis indicates that Lebanon is experiencing a significant political shift aimed at regaining sovereignty from Hezbollah’s long-standing influence. Factors contributing to this change include war fatigue, Iranian setbacks, and regime change in Syria. While Israel maintains military readiness and strategic interests, it faces uncertainty regarding U.S. foreign policy’s impact on negotiations with Lebanon. Hezbollah, though weakened, remains a crucial political entity with deep-rooted resistance identities that complicates disarmament prospects and future stability.
Original Source: www.thejc.com
