The power struggle within Ethiopia’s TPLF threatens renewed conflict with Eritrea as rival factions escalate tensions, raising fears of wider instability in the Horn of Africa and a humanitarian crisis worsened by prior civil conflicts. The geopolitical implications may extend to neighboring countries and reflect ongoing diplomatic tensions.
The ongoing power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) raises the risk of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Recent escalations began with a dissident faction’s takeover of a major radio station in Mekelle, alongside the capture of Adigrat, leading Tigray’s interim leader, Getachew Reda, to voice concerns about potential collaboration between rival factions and Eritrea to reignite civil war tensions.
Getachew succeeded previous TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael following a 2022 peace agreement that ended two years of civil conflict. Despite the cessation of hostilities, Eritrea remains hostile towards the TPLF, seeking to obliterate its influence after being sidelined during peace negotiations. President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea views Tigray as a strategic buffer in case of military action from Ethiopia.
Dissatisfaction exists among certain TPLF factions regarding the 2022 agreement which they perceived as undermining their power and forcing disarmament while preferential roles were given to negotiators. Recently, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) sided with Debretsion’s faction, suggesting potential agreements around lucrative resources, complicating the political landscape.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions for access to the Red Sea raise alarms for Eritrea, especially with Ethiopian military mobilization detected. Analysts note that the potential for escalation is high, given prior conflicts in the region, which could have far-reaching implications for neighboring nations like Sudan and Chad, potentially igniting widespread instability.
The humanitarian crisis in Tigray, still recovering from the last civil war, exacerbates fears; many depend on aid for survival. Meanwhile, external factors such as U.S.-Eritrea relations and continued refugee influx from neighboring conflicts raise additional stakes in the situation. Recent diplomatic conflicts, including expulsion of the South African ambassador by the U.S., further complicate regional dynamics in Africa.
The power struggle within the TPLF has reignited fears of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, highlighting the fragile geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa. As dissent within the TPLF grows, Eritrea’s role in the potential resurgence of violence poses significant risks not only to Ethiopia but also to the surrounding nations. Humanitarian concerns persist amidst the instability, raising questions about international involvement and support in this volatile region.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
