Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC arrest intensifies competition for the May 2025 elections. Analysts foresee a tough electoral battle between the Duterte and Marcos families, heavily influenced by his legal troubles. Strategic positioning of candidates includes Sara Duterte’s uncertain prospects amidst impeachment challenges. The potential for unrest looms as the political landscape evolves before the elections.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity has significantly heightened the stakes for the upcoming May 2025 midterm elections, according to political analysts. The arrest, which occurred on March 11, coincides with intense political turmoil, including the impeachment of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte. The elections are shaping up to be a contest between two influential families: the Dutertes and the Marcoses, amidst their previously collaborative dynamics now turning competitive.
Political strategist Jean Franco from the University of the Philippines commented on the situation. She suggested that while the Dutertes will fiercely aim for success in the elections, the Marcos camp may feel compelled to work harder to diminish the Duterte legacy. The backdrop of Duterte’s arrest adds complexity to an already fraught relationship following a shared victory in the 2022 elections, which has since soured as calls for ICC investigations emerged.
Analyzing the political landscape, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. possesses significant advantages due to institutional support for the upcoming elections. The Dutertes are positioning themselves for top roles in Davao City, with Rodrigo Duterte running for mayor, while his sons are targeting vice mayor and congressional positions. Nationwide, Marcos is backing several senatorial candidates, including allies who aim to secure benefits for Sara during her impending impeachment trial.
Sara Duterte, seen as a formidable candidate for the 2028 presidential race, faces challenges from alleged undermining efforts by Marcos allies. Analysts note the potential for unrest as political analyst Ronald Llamas speculated on possible actions by the Dutertes against Marcos if conditions worsen. However, recent reports from military branches indicated that unity remains intact despite concerns about Duterte’s arrest sparking division.
With electoral surveys indicating a preference for Duterte’s allies, including Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go and Sen. Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, the political tension continues to rise. Both are seeking reelection, but concerns loom over the implications of the ICC case. Dela Rosa, facing potential arrest, stated he may refrain from surrendering if confronted with an ICC warrant, reflecting the pervasive sense of insecurity among Duterte’s supporters.
As candidates evaluate public responses to Duterte’s arrest, many remain cautious, waiting to gauge the development of rallies and public sentiment. Arugay emphasized that the pivotal factor is the arrest of Dela Rosa, as it may influence candidates’ positions significantly. Previous surveys have shown considerable public favor toward the ICC case against Duterte, suggesting a mismatch between his past popularity and current sentiment regarding his policies.
Looking ahead to the 2028 elections, analysts suggest unpredictability remains as significant challenges may affect Sara Duterte’s prospects. Llamas identified multiple liabilities, including her father’s ICC troubles and her impending impeachment trial, which could jeopardize her political future if resulting in criminal convictions. Although she retains strong initial support, questions linger about how current issues will impact her perceptions moving forward.
The arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte has significantly transformed the political dynamics for the May 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines. As the Dutertes and Marcoses prepare for a contentious battle, the complexities arising from Duterte’s ICC situation may reshape voter sentiment and influence candidates’ strategies. The looming challenges for Sara Duterte’s political future further compound the uncertainty, highlighting the high stakes involved in this evolving political landscape.
Original Source: www.benarnews.org
