This article examines Zimbabwe’s political evolution post-Mugabe, focusing on its potential return to the Commonwealth. Following a controversial electoral process in 2023, the Secretary-General’s assessments reflect contrasting views on Zimbabwe’s commitment to democratic reforms. Both optimism and skepticism exist regarding political will and public support for rejoining the Commonwealth, spotlighting the country’s complex trajectory ahead.
In November 2017, Robert Mugabe, who had been a central figure in Zimbabwe’s independence, was ousted from power following a military coup. His successor, Emmerson Mnangagwa, took office amidst public celebrations that signaled a desire for change, focusing on ending widespread corruption and violence. Mnangagwa expressed intentions to revive Zimbabwe’s Commonwealth membership under new conditions set by the Commonwealth.
Baroness Patricia Scotland, Commonwealth Secretary-General, indicated that Zimbabwe could return when it aligns with Commonwealth Charter values, established in 2012. The aftermath of the 2018 elections, which secured ZANU-PF’s continued dominance, raised concerns about the processes involved, revealing significant post-election violence and necessitating more cautious expectations for Zimbabwe’s political climate moving forward.
In 2022, Scotland launched an informal assessment via the Commonwealth Secretariat to review Zimbabwe’s compliance with membership requirements. While officials reported progress, scrutiny from international observers highlighted deficiencies in Zimbabwe’s electoral processes during the 2023 elections, leading to mixed evaluations from various entities, including the EU and SADC.
Notably, the Commonwealth Observer Group (COG) was invited to assess the elections but withheld its judgment until a comprehensive report was finalized. Early in 2024, this report was under review by the Secretary-General but faced demands for amendments from some officials, indicating internal disagreements while still being described positively.
By October 2024, following delays, the reports were distributed to Commonwealth member countries before the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. Disturbingly, the COG’s public release took over a year contrary to established guidelines that dictate the timeliness of such reports, introducing concerns regarding the transparency of the Secretariat’s actions.
Both the COG’s report and Scotland’s informal assessment outlined the challenges Zimbabwe faces regarding its democratic practices—including the need for electoral law reforms and greater civil liberties—but differed in their evaluations of the government’s willingness to initiate such changes. Scotland expressed optimism regarding Zimbabwe’s democratic trajectory, whereas the COG emphasized existing shortcomings and skepticism regarding the government’s commitment to reform.
Scotland asserted that popular support for Zimbabwe’s reintegration into the Commonwealth exists, citing consistent reports of enthusiasm from various societal sectors during her assessment missions. These contrasting perspectives on public sentiment represent a critical component in Zimbabwe’s ongoing journey towards potential Commonwealth membership, indicating both hope and skepticism about future developments.
The analysis of Zimbabwe’s quest for Commonwealth membership underscores a complex political landscape following Robert Mugabe’s ouster. While Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government aims for re-engagement with the Commonwealth, concerns about electoral integrity, governance challenges, and public support linger. Ultimately, the differing evaluations from various Commonwealth bodies highlight ongoing skepticism and varying perceptions of Zimbabwe’s commitment to democratic reform. As issues remain unresolved, the prospects for Zimbabwe’s return to the Commonwealth hinge on future political developments and international responses.
Original Source: www.commonwealthroundtable.co.uk
