Ethiopia’s Tigray region faces renewed instability despite the Pretoria Agreement’s peace. Factional divides among Tigrayan leaders create unrest, leading to economic challenges and fears of war. Regional powers and external influences from the Middle East contribute to the unsettling climate, prompting warnings of imminent conflict.
Over two years after the cessation of hostilities in Tigray through the Pretoria Agreement, Ethiopia faces renewed instability. The peace brought about by the November 2022 agreement is fragile as many remain displaced and economic hardships increase. The threat of renewed conflict looms, with towns like Mekelle exhibiting signs of anxiety and unrest due to rising living costs and disrupted daily routines.
Tensions have escalated as internal divisions among Tigrayan leaders complicate the situation. Following the Pretoria Agreement, the political landscape has shifted with power struggles and factional splits, notably sidelining Getachew Reda, the head of Tigray’s Interim Regional Administration. As a result, law and order are deteriorating, fostering fear of a potential return to violence.
Analysts noted that the longstanding unity of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has unraveled, leading to unexpected splits among leadership. This shift occurred after some military commanders took sides with Debretsion Gebremichael, the leader of the TPLF, who is now in control of key territories. The political maneuvering within Tigray adds another layer of complexity to the already dire situation.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s initial attempts at reform and reconciliation have also faltered. His struggle against the Tigrayan elite intensified with the 2020-2022 conflict, aimed at diminishing their long-standing power. Despite efforts, the military goals against the TPLF were not fully realized, leaving discontent among involved parties and unresolved tensions.
The warning from Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae regarding inevitable conflict emphasizes the precarious political climate of Ethiopia. With ongoing militarization apparent both within the nation and from neighboring Eritrea, the region signals a readiness for potential combat. However, experts caution against definitive predictions, as external influences from countries such as Eritrea may alter the course of events significantly.
The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by foreign interests in the Horn of Africa. Middle Eastern powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE exhibit ambitions that influence regional stability. While Saudi Arabia has shown signs of solidarity with Ethiopia, its cautious stance toward UAE ambitions could change alliances and create additional conflicts in the region. As conflicts in Sudan and tensions involving Somalia unfold, Ethiopia’s situation remains highly fluid and uncertain.
The situation in Tigray remains volatile, reflecting deeper divisions and complexities within Ethiopian politics. Divided leadership, economic pressures, and significant external influences heighten the risk of renewed conflict. The pressures from regional neighbors, particularly Eritrea’s evolving stance, coupled with shifting foreign policy dynamics from Middle Eastern nations, augment the uncertainty surrounding Ethiopia’s political future. As tensions escalate, the potential for instability in the broader Horn of Africa region becomes increasingly pronounced.
Original Source: www.dw.com
