Syria’s political landscape is transforming after nearly 54 years under Assad, but dangers persist. New leadership faces skepticism and violence from factions unwilling to coexist ideologically. External influences, particularly from Israel and Iran, complicate local dynamics, and international scrutiny continues as issues of representation and unity emerge with the potential for inclusiveness essential for stability.
The recent developments in Syria mark a pivotal shift following decades under Assad’s regime. The new leadership is beleaguered by challenges, including remnants of the old regime, which continue to influence regional dynamics despite not formally participating in governance. Additionally, skepticism exists among Syrian factions regarding the compatibility of the new administration’s ideological stance with their interests, raising concerns about religious and sectarian tensions that have persisted over the years.
Current interim authorities gained their positions under extraordinary conditions, and while they enjoy some regional and international backing, their authority is not absolute and is subject to global scrutiny. This dynamic is compounded by the apparent confidence shown by military leaders, which some believe surpasses that of the broader Syrian populace.
The emergence of an agreement between the newly established Damascus authority and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) underscores U.S. support for the new government. This indicates that territorial integrity in Syria will likely be maintained, countering previous fears of a separatist uprising from the Kurds. This collaboration impacts other groups, such as the Druze in southern Syria, urging them to consider similar alignments.
The Druze community, particularly in Suwayda, remains influential, but recent Israeli interventions complicate the political landscape. Israel’s push to support the Druze, despite a lack of explicit requests from their leadership, raises doubts about its implications and acceptance among the Druze. The strategic moves from Israel, including significant funding, reflect long-planned maneuvers to assert influence through diaspora connections.
Observations indicate that efforts to foster arrangements between Suwayda factions and Damascus may face obstacles from external pressures, notably from Israel and its U.S. allies. This geopolitical tension escalates the stakes for local stakeholders.
In terms of security, Alawite-dominant coastal regions remain volatile. Iranian-backed paramilitary groups continue to conduct operations, indicating ongoing external influence against the new Damascus authorities. However, it is crucial to evaluate whether Tehran correctly perceives the shifting power dynamics within Syria and the international context surrounding U.S.-Israeli strategies aimed at curbing Iranian strength.
Despite recent atrocities resulting in significant civilian casualties, the international community, through the UN Security Council, has called for accountability from Damascus and urged protection for all ethnic groups. Additionally, discussions about a new constitutional declaration in Damascus that centralizes power spark controversy. Many critics argue that increasing political representation and inclusivity would be more beneficial for national cohesion, as Syria must strive for unity among its diverse communities to ensure stability.
In summary, Syria’s transition into a new political environment faces serious complexities, influenced by historical grievances, sectarian tensions, and the interplay of external powers. The current interim leadership must navigate a landscape of skepticism from various factions and the looming presence of international actors. The recent collaboration between the Damascus authority and SDF, alongside challenges posed by Israeli dynamics, indicates a multifaceted struggle for power and governance. To build a stable future, there is a pressing need for an inclusive approach that accommodates the diverse Syrian populace and mitigates sectarian strife.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
