The ONLF warns of a potential return to insurgency over unmet promises from the 2018 peace deal with the Ethiopian government. As tensions escalate due to ongoing grievances of marginalization and political repression, the region faces instability. Calls for equitable resource sharing and political inclusion are vital for sustaining peace in Ethiopia’s Somali region.
Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State is facing a looming threat of renewed armed conflict due to the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) warning of the potential collapse of the 2018 peace agreement with the federal government. The ONLF Chairman Abdirahman Sheikh Mahdi has indicated that the group is contemplating returning to insurgency due to ongoing tensions, federal violations of their autonomy, and resource disputes. This precarious situation exemplifies the fragility of Ethiopia’s federalism under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and is aggravated by systemic neglect and violent oppression that have long characterized the region.
The ONLF emerged in 1984 as a response to historical marginalization and the exploitation of the region’s oil and gas reserves. Its formation followed the 1977-1978 Ogaden war, which drove Somalis into political and economic despair. Over the years, the ONLF carried out guerrilla warfare against an Addis Abeba government that relentlessly suppressed the Somali population, leaving them impoverished despite the region’s resource wealth. This history of conflict exhibits Ethiopia’s punitive tactics against the ONLF, including extensive human rights abuses, undermining any chance for lasting peace.
The 2018 Asmara peace deal, intended to integrate ONLF fighters and grant political recognition, has largely been rendered ineffective due to the federal government’s indifference. Less than 10% of former combatants have been successfully reintegrated into society. The Prosperity Party’s increasing centralization and suppression of political engagement have led to a resurgence of resentment in the Somali region, rekindling ONLF’s foundational grievances related to autonomy and self-determination.
Currently, the ONLF’s resurgence is fueled by a long history of unmet promises and the deteriorating political climate that has silenced opposition voices. Mustafa Omar, the Somali regional administration head, has faced criticism for corruption and complicity in utilizing state apparatus against political dissent, undermining previous peace efforts. The administration’s actions betray the spirit of the peace agreement, perpetuating narratives of internal colonialism that inhibit equitable resource distribution and political inclusion.
The Ethiopian government employs tactics of co-optation and coercion against the ONLF, attempting to create divisions within the group. However, tensions heightened in September 2024 when government officials declared the ONLF an enemy. This shift in rhetoric has prompted the ONLF to withdraw from political dialogues, viewing them as mere facades to mask authoritarian behaviors.
Youth-led movements in urban areas of the Somali region reflect deep frustrations over governance failures, manifesting in widespread protests over resource mismanagement and calls for accountability. By leveraging social media, these movements link local dissent with international advocacy, gaining support from diaspora communities that serve essential roles in funding and lobbying for the ONLF.
Despite its reduced military capacity, the ONLF is likely to employ a hybrid strategy combining grassroots mobilization with guerrilla tactics to challenge the government’s legitimacy. As Ethiopia remains entrenched in coercive responses to dissent rather than addressing core grievances, the risk of further destabilization persists, potentially reigniting insurrections that could further jeopardize national stability.
To avert renewed conflict, Ethiopia must revitalize the 2018 peace deal through actionable commitments. This includes following through on previous promises such as prosecuting corruption and ensuring regional autonomy. Trust is critically low among the population, given the historical disregard for agreements. International pressure may be necessary, but Ethiopia’s leaders must also exhibit a willingness to engage constructively with discontent.
The situation requires urgent attention, as heightened conflict in the Somali region could exacerbate ethnic tensions, undermine vital economic ties, and provide openings for extremist groups. Chairman Maaday’s statement reflects a growing impatience, signaling that while the ONLF’s conventional strength may be diminished, its capacity for unconventional warfare remains a serious concern. Ethiopia must dismantle exclusionary policies and address Somali grievances as a critical step toward comprehensive national reconciliation, to prevent repeating the catastrophic outcomes observed in past conflicts.
The ONLF’s warning of a potential return to armed insurrection underscores the urgent need for the Ethiopian government to address historical grievances and restore meaningful political inclusion in the Somali region. The failure to execute the promises laid out in the 2018 peace agreement has generated discontent and risked stability in a region already grappling with significant socio-political challenges. A proactive approach focused on accountability, equitable resource distribution, and genuine dialogue is essential to prevent further escalation of conflict and achieve lasting peace in Ethiopia.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
